Business Forecasting;Using the United Kingdom statistics locates Banks consumer credit: Gross lending figures from 1993-2003

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Using the United Kingdom statistics locates Banks consumer credit Gross lending figures from 1-00

1.Examine the data by plotting and/or otherwise for seasonal effects, trends and cycles.

YearJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDec

14546145444054788457641454787

Essay service for your Business Forecasting;Using the United Kingdom statistics locates Banks consumer credit: Gross lending figures from 1993-2003 paper

14418048746465745746455148468850557

15481457154855085656785587611655657657815855

1657654485776506586070666841648061764687161

1766088646787007477751675074718751

1875167786818087884178606487880445

1810784767888511874858087460105710450

000501006108411156108061077108806108571081070

00111141001106117118811711151158147184165

0017611651671841408511114711518144141

0010110

Resource http//www.statistics.gov.uk/statbase/TSDtimezone.asp (Accessed /04/0)

The figure shows Banks consumer credit Gross lending on a monthly basis starting with the first month of 14 and ending with the twelfth month of 00. And we will use the data in 00 to check on the forecast.

As seen from the graph above, the time series data moves upward over a period of time so it can be said that the data shows a fairly strongly positive trend, so that we might expect high autocorrelation coefficients. Considering ACF, it supports this expectation because it is significantly different from zero. Autocorrelation at lag 1 is 0.45 and move downwards to 0.581 at lag 16.

Afterwards, we will choose data from 14-001 to model.

.Try a classical decomposition method on part of the data and check it against the rest of the data.

The ACF of the actual data shows that there is a trend or cycle or both, so we should look at the ACF of the first difference.

From the ACF of the first difference, we could use the 1 points moving average to smooth the data. Subsequently, we will calculate the twelve point moving average, seasonal estimate, trend-cycle estimate and forecast based on the trend-cycle and the seasonal ratios.

After calculating center moving average and getting seasonal estimate (ratio), we will find out the factors as following table

SequenceMeanCount

10.57

0.17

1.007

40.87

51.017

61.07

71.047

81.057

1.007

101.007

111.007

11.047

Then we can de-seasonalise the data by dividing the factors into the data to create a trend cycle column. Next, we regress the trend cycle against the time and will get a trend column.

Coefficients

Unstandardized Coefficients Standardized CoefficientstSig.

Model BStd. ErrorBeta

1(Constant)45.16484.847 46.480.000

TIME84.571.510.8555.560.000

aDependent Variable TRENCYC

From the coefficients table above, the trend equation is

Trend = 45.164+84.57 Time

Then we can create a moving average forecasting column with the factors and trend column. The moving average forecasting equation is

Forecast = Trend Factors

Therefore, it can be implied that

Forecast = (45.164+84.57 Time) Factors

Moreover, the errors will be calculated by deducting the forecast data from the actual data in order to see how accurate the forecast is.

Errors = Data Forecast

See the figures of the result as following table

TimeDataCenter Moving AverageRatiosSequenceFactorsTrend-cycleTrend lineForecastErrors

14Jan1410.5446.40.588.0400.6

Feb800.147.6411.8874.66.7

Mar4871.00487.00418.4418.4680.76

Apr4460.84485.7148.5416.41.06

May546571.014610.8466.54410.646.8

Jun64571.0485.804451.14540.416.67

Jul74644804.000.871.04451.46455.664717.0-.0

Aug85514857.11.1481.05550.48455.664851.0661.8

Sep48407.001.01.00550.484704.84704.884.6

Oct104688461.500.4101.004688.004788.74788.7-100.7

Nov1150550.881.00111.00505.00487.0487.0178.1

Dec1575107.041.0511.045165.8457.455155.7516.5

15Jan14815107.040.10.55066.5041.81478.71.

Feb14457156.60.8710.150.08516.164664.81-.81

Mar155485585.61.041.005485.00510.5510.574.48

Apr16508554.0.540.850.0454.885188.8-0.8

May175654.461.0551.0150.0457.54.058.7

Jun185678547.61.0461.05566.67546.5557.86105.14

Jul1558755.61.0171.0457.15547.5576.86-18.86

Aug061165615.711.081.05584.7656.051.0.08

Sep15565664.50.81.00556.005716.665716.66-154.66

Oct576578.41.01101.00576.005801.05801.0-8.0

Nov57815817.670.111.005781.005885.85885.8-104.8

Dec45855586.541.0011.0456.8156.7608.5-5.5

16Jan5576545.60.710.56065.66054.05751.810.6

Feb65448607.70.00.1586.81618.455751.8-17.

Mar75776106.50.51.00577.006.806.80-44.80

Apr865061.581.040.8647.5607.166181.0168.8

May65866.1.0551.016516.861.56455.416.57

Jun06065.0.561.0514.716475.876605.-57.

Jul1706664.001.1071.04674.6560.68.644.6

Aug68416485.1.0581.056515.46644.5676.8-15.8

Sep648065.0.1.006480.00678.5678.5-48.4

Oct4617655.001.05101.00617.00681.0681.010.70

Nov564686655.70.7111.006468.00687.66687.66-4.66

Dec6716167.581.0611.046885.5868.0761.0-100.0

17Jan7668.0.410.5678.47066.7671.05-1.05

Feb8608868.10.880.1660.117150.76507.16-41.16

Mar646664.580.01.00646.0075.075.0-8.0

Apr40787050.671.0540.875.6571.44717.0608.4

May41700711.880.851.016.60740.807477.84-468.84

Jun474776.581.061.076.477488.16767.-164.

Jul4774.671.0871.047618.7757.57875.447.58

Aug4475167448.541.0181.057158.107656.8780.7-5.7

Sep457507588.70.1.00750.007741.7741.-1.

Oct46747710.51.0101.0074.00785.5785.5117.41

Nov4771774.50.5111.0071.0070.470.4-518.4

Dec488751707.61.1111.048414.474.0814.0746.

18Jan47516801.080.410.5711.588078.667674.7-158.7

Feb50778116.670.00.1806.64816.01748.4-1.4

Mar51868.81.01.0086.00847.7847.7115.6

Apr5818088.0.840.8846.481.78165.014.1

May587844.710.851.018145.548416.08500.5-7.5

Jun54884857.1.0561.08807.848500.448670.451.55

Jul55178580.881.0671.048775.68584.8088.118.81

Aug568606864.461.0081.05816.1866.1610.61-46.61

Sep574877.1.061.004.00875.51875.51488.4

Oct5887888.60.101.00878.00887.87887.87-10.87

Nov580886.671.01111.0080.008.8.-.

Dec60445811.581.0611.04081.7006.5866.8578.15

1Jan618107878.880.010.585.6800.4866.-5.

Feb684060.080.10.107.6175.084.5-15.5

Mar676714.11.071.00767.005.665.66507.4

Apr64880.670.640.801.744.01157.1-4.1

May65851104.040.151.01846.748.75.65-1011.65

Jun66874415.71.0561.0680.51.770.8171.0

Jul6785516.61.0471.0447.0857.0880.7-18.7

Aug6880651.1.081.0561.0681.4410165.51-5.51

Sep687770.81.01.0087.00765.80765.801.0

Oct7046086.500.6101.00460.00850.15850.15-0.15

Nov71105767.61.06111.001057.004.514.5166.4

Dec71045010117.001.011.0410048.0810018.871041.60.8

000Jan7501014.10.10.51001.581010.58.06-68.06

Feb7410061076.40.80.111017.5810187.5870.70755.0

Mar751081016.881.051.00108.001071.41071.4561.06

Apr7641071.710.040.85.671056.01014.17-806.17

May77111561044.11.0751.0111045.5410440.6510545.06610.4

Jun781080610465.1.061.01054.11055.011075.5170.4

Jul710771054.1.071.041058.651060.7110.74-60.74

Aug80108810610.81.081.05106.81106.7118.41-46.41

Sep81061061.70.1.0006.0010778.0810778.08-87.08

Oct81085710707.81.01101.0010857.001086.441086.44-5.44

Nov810810817.51.01111.00108.001046.801046.80-54.80

Dec8410701088.10.811.04107.11101.151147.40-76.40

001Jan8511141100.081.0110.5117.4711115.511055.758.7

Feb8610011170.040.00.111014.111.871011.88-168.88

Mar871106110.670.81.001106.001184.1184.-.

Apr8811711450.750.840.811456.11168.5811141.185.7

May811881161.881.051.0111780.01145.411567.470.5

Jun01171117.671.0061.01155.801157.11768.04.6

Jul111.04141.71161.651086.584.48

Aug151.051178.1011706.0111.1.6

Sep11581.001158.001170.71170.7-4.6

Oct41471.00147.0011874.711874.717.8

Nov51841.00184.00115.08115.0888.

Dec61651.04114.04104.44155.1710.8

Then, we can plot the decomposition forecasting against the actual data to illustrate what is happening.

The graph shows that the decomposition forecasting fits the actual data better at the middle. However, at the beginning and the end, there are some errors.

Comparing the forecast data with the rest of the data, we calculate them by extending the time line and see the result as following table

Rest DataTimeFactorsTrendForecastErrors

00Jan176.0070.5117.71151.40140.60

Feb1165.0080.111.151111.06851.4

Mar167.001.0016.5116.518.4

Apr184.001000.8180.8611.51850.75

May14085.001011.011465.158.87145.1

Jun111.00101.0154.581800.57-688.57

Jul147.00101.0416.411.158.71

Aug115.001041.051718.154.1-1.1

Sep18.001051.00180.65180.65186.5

Oct144.001061.001887.011887.01606.

Nov14.001071.00171.6171.6-.6

Dec1.001081.041055.71577.544.05

00Jan158.00100.51140.08148.071114.

Feb17.001100.114.4104.7.77

Sum of squared errors=1855.51

Mean-squared error (MSE)=1108.75

Root-mean-squared error (RMSE)=57.74

This RMSE is about 7. % of the mean for the rest of data during the forecast period

From the table above, we can notice the errors as illustrated the graph below which is plotted from rest data against forecast data of 00-00.

Although there is some significant errors, perhaps which are caused by economic uncertainty during that period, overall the plot graph below shows that the predict data relatively fit the real data.

. Try an Autocorrelation approach on the same data and discuss the differences between the results and those from the Decomposition approach. Please comment on the different from of the equation for the forecast.

After the first difference, it shows that there are seven spikes on lag1, lag, lag4, lag10, lag1, lag1, and lag14 so we will try on these lagged data to calculate correlations.

The table below shows the correlations between the actual data and lagged data

Correlations

DATALAGSLAGSLAGSLAGSLAGSLAGSLAGS

(DATA,1)(DATA,)(DATA,4)(DATA,10)(DATA,1)(DATA,1)(DATA,14)

DATAPearson Correlation1.5.6.5.6.7.40.54

Sig. (-tailed)..000.000.000.000.000.000.000

N65868488

LAGS(DATA,1)Pearson Correlation.51.56.6.505.7.8

Sig. (-tailed).000..000.000.000.000.000.000

N55868488

LAGS(DATA,)Pearson Correlation.6.561.57.8.5.4.58

Sig. (-tailed).000.000..000.000.000.000.000

N868488

LAGS(DATA,4)Pearson Correlation.5.6.571.45.51.51.

Sig. (-tailed).000.000.000..000.000.000.000

N868488

LAGS(DATA,10)Pearson Correlation.6.50.8.451.48.64.

Sig. (-tailed).000.000.000.000..000.000.000

N86868686868488

LAGS(DATA,1)Pearson Correlation.7.5.5.51.481.48.45

Sig. (-tailed)0.000.000.000.000.000..000.000

N84848484848488

LAGS(DATA,1)Pearson Correlation.40.7.4.51.64.481.47

Sig. (-tailed).000.000.000.000.000.000..000

N88888888

LAGS(DATA,14)Pearson Correlation.54.8.58...45.471

Sig. (-tailed).000.000.000.000.000.000.000.

N88888888

Correlation is significant at the 0.01 level (-tailed).

From the correlation between the data and lagged data, these are all high and then we need to use regression on the chosen columns to find the relationship.

Variables Entered/Removed

ModelVariables EnteredVariables RemovedMethod

1LAGS(DATA,14), LAGS(DATA,4), LAGS(DATA,10), LAGS(DATA,1), LAGS(DATA,), LAGS(DATA,1), LAGS(DATA,1).Enter

aAll requested variables entered.

bDependent Variable DATA

Model Summary

ModelRR SquareAdjusted R SquareStd. Error of the Estimate

10.800.610.57448.111

aPredictors (Constant), LAGS(DATA,14), LAGS(DATA,4), LAGS(DATA,10), LAGS(DATA,1), LAGS(DATA,), LAGS(DATA,1), LAGS(DATA,1)

This explains 5.7% of the variability and so will be reasonable fit to the data

Coefficients

Unstandardized CoefficientsStandardized CoefficientstSig.

Model BStd. ErrorBeta

1(Constant)1.58010.57 1.85.067

LAGS(DATA,1)1.658E-0.1.017.16.8

LAGS(DATA,).10.10.01.04.00

LAGS(DATA,4)1.70E-0.0.00.017.86

LAGS(DATA,10)-.11.10-.11-1.17.4

LAGS(DATA,1).5.105.5475.66.000

LAGS(DATA,1)6.E-0.14.05.471.6

LAGS(DATA,14).16.104.1811.88.064

aDependent Variable DATA

From the coefficients table, the lag1, lag4, lag10, lag1, and lag14 data are not significant as well as the constant so the regression should be repeated only with lag and lag1 data because their significant is less than .05

Variables Entered/Removed

ModelVariables EnteredVariables RemovedMethod

1LAGS(DATA,1), LAGS(DATA,).Enter

aAll requested variables entered.

bDependent Variable DATA

cLinear Regression through the Origin

Model Summary

ModelRR SquareAdjusted R SquareStd. Error of the Estimate

1..7.744.446

aFor regression through the origin (the no-intercept model), R Square measures the proportion of the variability in the dependent variable about the origin explained by regression. This CANNOT be compared to R Square for models which include an intercept.

bPredictors LAGS(DATA,1), LAGS(DATA,)

This fit has increased slightly from .7% to 6% by removing the lag1, lag4, lag10, lag1, and lag14 data as well as the constant.

Coefficients

Unstandardized CoefficientsStandardized Coefficients

Model BStd. ErrorBetatSig.

1LAGS(DATA,).4.07.446.08.000

LAGS(DATA,1).651.07.5758.70.000

aDependent Variable DATA

bLinear Regression through the Origin

All lag data are significant, so

Forecast = 0.4 (data lagged) + 0.651 (data lagged1)

See the figures of the Autocorrelation forecasting as following table

TimeDatalaglag1ForecastError

14Jan141

Feb80

Mar487

Apr44641.00

May5465780.00

Jun6457487.00

Jul746446.00

Aug85514657.00

Sep48457.00

Oct104688464.00

Nov11505551.00

Dec15748.00

15Jan14814688.0041.004746.0166.

Feb144571505.0080.004808.81-7.81

Mar15548557.00487.00554.54-4.54

Apr16508481.0046.00474.701.0

May17564571.004657.00508.865.6

Jun1856785485.00457.00564.4.08

Jul15587508.00464.005.8.18

Aug0611656.00551.006087.758.5

Sep15565678.0048.005740.48-178.48

Oct5765587.004688.005504.5858.4

Nov57816116.00505.0057.78-1.78

Dec45855556.0057.0058.8-8.8

16Jan5576576.00481.00566.8.78

Feb654485781.004571.00551.58-65.58

Mar75775855.005485.006141.08-68.08

Apr8650576.00508.005848.501.68

May6585448.0056.00607.16484.84

Jun060577.005678.0060.7-17.7

Jul17066650.005587.00644.7641.1

Aug6841658.006116.006871.01-0.01

Sep648060.00556.0066.510.65

Oct46177066.00576.00685.66.1

Nov564686841.005781.006766.6-8.6

Dec671616480.005855.006656.504.68

17Jan76617.00576.006787.6-5.6

Feb860886468.005448.00686.10-8.10

Mar6467161.00577.00601.0-655.0

Apr40786.00650.006.444.06

May417006088.00658.00657.5151.4

Jun4747646.0060.00666.4880.5

Jul4778.007066.007840.668.4

Aug447516700.006841.00750.44-14.44

Sep45750747.006480.0074.10.87

Oct46747.00617.00781.16-8.16

Nov47717516.006468.007510.1-11.1

Dec488751750.007161.0076.0787.1

18Jan4751674.006.007648.17-1.17

Feb507771.006088.00707.41.06

Mar51868751.00646.00707.84455.17

Apr581807516.0078.008105.174.7

May58777.00700.00778.8044.0

Jun5488486.00747.00856.8447.7

Jul55178180.007.008748.878.11

Aug56860687.007516.008504.57101.4

Sep574884.00750.0088.5040.50

Oct5887817.0074.00177.65-44.65

Nov5808606.0071.00858.580.4

Dec604454.008751.00754.14-0.14

1Jan618107878.007516.00874.51-617.51

Feb68480.0077.0086.7-468.7

Mar6767445.0086.0050.67176.

Apr64888107.008180.008884.15-51.15

May65851184.0087.00866.11-455.11

Jun66874767.00884.001016.0-6.0

Jul678588.0017.0081.6.64

Aug68808511.008606.008.8441.16

Sep687874.004.001051.-64.

Oct7046085.00878.0010006.6-546.6

Nov71105780.0080.00101.474.71

Dec71045087.00445.00105.-8.

000Jan750460.008107.0040.60.40

Feb7410061057.0084.0010005.10.0

Mar7510810450.00767.001045.87-11.87

Apr76450.0088.00.5-50.5

May77111561006.008511.004.0811.

Jun7810806108.00874.001118.66-77.66

Jul710774.0085.0010515.57.77

Aug80108811156.0080.00116.81-414.81

Sep810610806.0087.001145.7-1.7

Oct8108571077.00460.0010887.81-0.81

Nov81081088.001057.0011675.85-78.85

Dec84107006.0010450.0011151.68-44.68

001Jan85111410857.0050.001070.517.75

Feb86100108.001006.001108.51-185.51

Mar8711061070.00108.001175.5-61.5

Apr881171114.004.001074.075.

May81188100.0011156.001166.655.5

Jun011711106.0010806.001180.-.

Jul1111710771141.8887.1

Aug1511881088107.4017.60

Sep11581171061165.06-67.06

Oct4147110857174.7450.6

Nov5184151081501.747.6

Dec6165115810701157.7677.8

Then, we can plot the autocorrelation forecasting against the actual data to illustrate what is happening.

The graph shows that the Autocorrelation forecasting fits the actual data better at the middle. However, at the end, there are some errors.

Comparing the forecast data with the rest of the data, we calculate them by extending the time line and see the result as following table

TimeDatalaglag1ForecastError

00Jan71761471114106.5-07.5

Feb811651841001165.68-00.68

Mar16716511061748.1-6.1

Apr100184176117111.107.71

May101140851165118818.1086.77

Jun10111167117114.0-110.0

Jul10147184114555.76167.4

Aug10411514085151406.8-1.8

Sep1051811111581711.77.77

Oct10614414714715087.1-15.1

Nov1071411518414166.08-14.08

Dec10811816517.56-5.56

00Jan10158144176141.-6.

Feb110171411651470.75-118.75

Sum of squared errors=1071844.

Mean-squared error (MSE)=7650.16

Root-mean-squared error (RMSE)=874.76

This RMSE is about 6.6 % of the mean for the rest of data during the forecast period

From the table above, we can notice the errors as illustrated the graph below which is plotted from rest data against forecast data of 00-00.

However, there are some errors at the end, overall the plot graph below (During 14-00) shows that the predict data relatively fit the real data.

From the graph above, it illustrated the actual data (red line), Decomposition forecasting (blue line), and Autocorrelation forecasting (green line). Some periods Decomposition model is closer and fitter than Autocorrelation model, but some periods do contrast. Therefore, it is relatively difficult to say which model is better because both models are quite close to the real data.

However, it can be seen the error of these two models as following graph

Decomposition Model

Forecast = (45.164 + 84.57 Time) Factors

Autocorrelation Model

Forecast = 0.4 (data lagged) + 0.651 (data lagged1)

From these equations, it demonstrates that decomposition model depends on the trend running following time and some seasonal effects showing by the factors. And that means it can forecast more than one period ahead. Considering Autocorrelation model, it depends on the lag and lag1 data. It means it can forecast third periods ahead because from its equation has to forecast following the lag data.

4. Try a Box-Jenkins ARIMA approach on the same data and compare your forecasts with the rest of the data as before.

The trendcycle data from the question two will be used to analyse on the Box-Jenkins models as the seasonal effect was removed and the trendcycle data is shown at the chart below.

See the ACF and PACF of the trend-cycle data

From ACF, it shows a trend, so we will do the first difference to remove the trend

From Partial ACF, there is one strong spike on lag one and it dies away after one spike so if a model is fitted to the data, it should be an AR(1).

After first different, ACF does not die away so try the Partial ACF.

This PACF does not show any evidence of pattern repeat and does not die away so try the second difference.

The ACF and PACF of the second difference do not give anything helpful.

Therefore, AR(1) model is suggested by the Partial ACF of the trendcycle data. So we will try ARIMA(1,0,0) trendcycle data.

Model Description

Variable TRENCYC

Regressors NONE

Non-seasonal differencing 0

No seasonal component in model.

Parameters

AR1 ________ value originating from estimation

CONSTANT ________ value originating from estimation

5.00 percent confidence intervals will be generated.

Split group number 1 Series length 6

No missing data.

Melards algorithm will be used for estimation.

Termination criteria

Parameter epsilon .001

Maximum Marquardt constant 1.00E+0

SSQ Percentage .001

Maximum number of iterations 10

Initial values

AR1 .416

CONSTANT 808.40

Conclusion of estimation phase.

Estimation terminated at iteration number because

Sum of squares decreased by less than .001 percent.

FINAL PARAMETERS

Number of residuals 6

Standard error 5.65186

Log likelihood -74.7657

AIC 150.551

SBC 1508.658

Variables in the Model

BSEB T-RATIOAPPROX. PROB.

AR1 .8057 .0185 4.8788 .00000000

CONSTANT8144.7165017.450.7476 .00008

The constant term is significant so we can fit an AR(1) to the data with the constant.

The following new variables are being created

Name Label

FIT_1 Fit for TRENCYC from ARIMA, MOD_1 CON

ERR_1 Error for TRENCYC from ARIMA, MOD_1 CON

LCL_1 5% LCL for TRENCYC from ARIMA, MOD_1 CON

UCL_1 5% UCL for TRENCYC from ARIMA, MOD_1 CON

SEP_1 SE of fit for TRENCYC from ARIMA, MOD_1 CON

From the box of variables in the model above, T-ratio of the AR1 and constant are far away from 0 and bigger than and also the all probabilities of which are significant.

So, the ARIMA Model will be

Z t=8144.71650 + 0.8057 Z t-1

Because of using the trendcycle data with ARIMA, the ARIMA forecast data need to be multiplied by factors in order to get the real forecasts and compare to the actual data

Forecast=(8144.71650 + 0.8057 Z t-1) factors

After multiplying the forecast data by factors and plotting the forecast data against the actual data, it can be seen that it is very close to the data all over the period of time so this ARIMA model fits to the actual data.

Then check this model by considering the residuals by plotting the error. So, the graph shows removing trend and it is stationary.

So, the graph shows removing trend and it is relatively stationary. Then check with ACF and PACF which do not suggest anything.

All figures of ARIMA forecasting are shown as following table.

TimeDataForecastErrorLCLUCL

14Jan141777.48-78.40755.11554.1

Feb8040.1-46.5040.4155.8

Mar4874446.04.1067.1566.61

Apr446484.61-456.7476.7561.16

May54657460.854.0877.10576.5

Jun6457477.15180.54.85585.6

Jul7464510.58-410.1774.610.4

Aug8551481.666.46404.1576.7

Sep48506.71-17.71417.016486.4

Oct1046885050.-6.870.6160.0

Nov115054755.176.8575.4654.88

Dec157516.585..61.80

15Jan148146.11-156.6404.57640.8

Feb1445714664.78-10.0646.4605.84

Mar155485508.7401.704.066.44

Apr16508545.5-4.64456.76716.

May1756511.8176.4407.51648.

Jun185678578.0-117.74504.66864.11

Jul155875841.4-44.65447.05676.47

Aug06116567.8.77446.86605.70

Sep1556586.84-07.84460.1704.55

Oct576561.18150.844.48671.8

Nov5781580.8-8.846.57688.

Dec458556060.01-17.14647.7006.64

16Jan557654.7486.5448.76858.8

Feb654485556.16-118.8645.6785.8

Mar7577608.74-55.74484.04708.45

Apr8650570.70660.5146.868.7

May6586577.074.885.4761.65

Jun060667.4-6.76568.76778.17

Jul17066616.686.14778.717.75

Aug68417161.50-05.5640.768000.18

Sep64806546.0-66.0567.1776.61

Oct4617651.5404.655.6476.06

Nov56468640.86-47.865761.15810.56

Dec671616760.6085.0050.877680.

17Jan766564.54-181.6570.4808.75

Feb860886147.1-65.85576.75.65

Mar6466718.7-47.7558.67788.08

Apr40786157.414.76510.1746.60

May41700761.-604.4664.84874.5

Jun4747710.86.45578.1814.7

Jul47766.0675.0616.6685.08

Aug447516800.-470.406448.78808.1

Sep457507177.74.757.56856.7

Oct467475.14410.8665.48711.85

Nov4771746.-555.6767.116.6

Dec4887517701.871008.7865.48585.5

18Jan47516788.7-47.607.47588.8

Feb507770.66146.5676.4005.8

Mar51868064.8.776884.54.4

Apr58180811.58-11.8717.0558.47

May587846.44-17.46716.05.7

Jun54884808.4466.1665.85.4

Jul5517146.76-1.007615.574.67

Aug56860601.88-567.51758.4.40

Sep574815.11046.817015.4874.0

Oct588780.68-4.688040.710400.

Nov5808716.670.756.686.7

Dec6044561.1176.80775.10084.64

1Jan6181078610.5-5.84788.8104.

Feb6847758.77511.4746.4705.8

Mar676700.0746.87840.1101.7

Apr6488540.77-7.18555.771015.1

May658511086.5-56.667816.6810176.10

Jun66874858.6815.14741.54600.6

Jul67851006.57-177.488470.841080.6

Aug68801.6-85.6867.561066.7

Sep6878.5648.758158.5510517.6

Oct7046051.0-41.08771.41110.1

Nov71105744.44116.56854.710614.15

Dec7104501071.-501.76.64117.06

000Jan750510.540.4881.81110.80

Feb74100605.710.678815.111174.6

Mar751081061.76-18.7678.051141.47

Apr76410565.15-147.0601.061160.47

May7711156601.75158.8686.810686.

Jun78108061108.6-5.0680.471168.8

Jul710771068.8-187.8766.81176.

Aug8010881081.448.1715.1145.4

Sep8106100.6-414.6140.811500.40

Oct810857871.7885.86.0711051.48

Nov810810804.087.7064.51184.01

Dec841070117.16-541.50658.11018.

001Jan85111474.51474.18075.581145.00

Feb8610010610.4-645.510480.1118.5

Mar8711061058.510.47778.8118.4

Apr8811710785.1450.8185.611185.0

May8118811505.7088.4101.071571.4

Jun01171114.75-14.75105.85188.7

Jul11115.188.101.74167.15

Aug15165.85-610.11168.7158.14

Sep115811668.7-10.710488.561847.8

Oct4147115.56151.4410115.851475.7

Nov51841147.86-8.861168.15147.57

Dec6165167.8-608.5511577.8817.0

Comparing the forecast data with the rest of the data, we calculate them by extending the time line and see the result as following table

TimeDataForecastErrorLCLUCL

00Jan71761664.7410.8117.404614.04

Feb8116510.5-147.811764.6481488.006

Mar16714.08-715.081186.16145.887

Apr100184184.01714.810.18415087.04

May1011408511.546.1011477.5414541.5

Jun1011118.7-146.0511588.64461465.4704

Jul101471484.85.601.05156.046

Aug1041151700.5-46.811516.18614580.01

Sep105181587.1-58.11055.041511.007

Oct1061441448.7545.51116.8681480.666

Nov10714175.48-.481174.570414807.6

Dec10811400.47-78.411.66146.7884

00Jan101581646.741001.11780.440614844.664

Feb110171184.7741.471146.51456.161

Sum of squared errors=55.1

Mean-squared error (MSE)=4566.7

Root-mean-squared error (RMSE)=68.15

This RMSE is about 4.76 % of the mean for the rest of data during the forecast period

However, overall the plot graph below (During 14-00) shows that the predict data relatively fits the real data.

5. Discuss the differences between the Box-Jenkins results and the other methods you have used. In particular comment on the different mathematical forms of the models selected.

Decomposition Model

Forecast= Trend Factors

=(45.164 + 84.57 Time) Factors

Autocorrelation Model

Forecast= 0.4 (Data lagged) + 0.651 (Data lagged1)

ARIMA Model

Forecast (Zt)=(8144.71650 + 0.8057 Z t-1) Factors

First of all, decomposition model is a linear model which depends on the trendcycle, runs following time, and seasonal effects showing by the factors. So it can forecast more than one period ahead.

Second, autocorrelation model is based on two explanatory variables which are data lagged and data lagged1. So it can forecast third periods ahead because from its equation has to forecast following the lag data.

Finally, Box-Jenkins model or ARIMA model shows the form of an ARIMA(1,0,0) or AR(1) model which depends on the constant term and Zt-1 as well as factors.

The graph below illustrates the comparisons of actual data and three forecasting data which are generated from decomposition model, autocorrelation model and ARIMA model.

It is very difficult to say which model is better because most forecast data are relatively close to real data and some periods one is fitter to the actual data more than others but some periods do contrast. Therefore, we can not tell much different among them.

Next, we will focus on the most appropriate of these three models by considering the error.

Compare the errors of the data for model fit.

From the graph above, it can be seen that the autocorrelation model is more appropriate than other two because of more accuracy. Moreover, it involves only the lag data and does not have any influences from the factors like other two models. If you look at the actual data graph below, it shows a trend pattern but does not show a seasonal pattern. It is emphasised to use autocorrelation model. On the other hand, if the graph shows obviously seasonal pattern, decomposition model should be better. And because of using the trendcycle data to use for ARIMA forecasting, it involves seasonal effects (factors); so make ARIMA model not a proper method as well.

However, there has some lost data at the beginning and at the end by using autocorrelation model to forecast because its data is need to be lagged and it can not forecast a bit more future like Box-Jenkins or ARIMA model.

6. Comment on the impact of your choice of where to split the data in order to use some data to fit the model and other data to check it.

The data at the end (00-00) has been used to check the forecast. From the graph below, we can see that at the beginning and middle of the rest data, the forecast data from autocorrelation model and ARIMA model is close to data but other periods, significant errors will occur. However, there are considerable errors occurred.

Then, trying new data model, we choose data model from 15-00 and data in 1-14 is used for checking. The graph below shows errors from old data (split at the end) against errors from new data (split at the beginning)

The magnitudes of errors from two ways to split data all over the period are similar but they do not overlap at the same time so it does some impact on where to split the data. However, it should be consider the pattern of actual data and choose the appropriate method to forecast rather than think about where to split the data.

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Occupational Fraud and Abuse

Occupational fraud and abuse is a widespread problem that affects practically every organization, regardless of size, location, or industry. It comes in many shapes and sizes and it's growing faster than ever. From the report of the association of certified fraud examiners to the nation in 16, Fraud and abuse cost U.S. organizations more than $400 billion annually and is raised in 00 to be more than $600 billion annually. That's why it is so important for us to learn about occupational fraud and abuse. Before we illustrate about causes and factors that effect directly to fraud, we will talk about its basic first.

I. What is Fraud?

What is Fraud? According to Black's Law Dictionary, fraud is A generic term, embracing all multifarious means which human ingenuity can devise, and which are resorted to by one individual to get advantage over another by false suggestions or by suppression of truth, and includes all surprise, trickery, cunning, dissembling, and any unfair way by which another is cheated. In addition, we can decide what is fraud from the legal elements of fraud.

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II. The legal elements of fraud

1. A false representation or willful omission was made regarding a material fact.

. The perpetrator knew that the representation was false. (Intent to mislead).

. The victim relied on the misrepresentation.

4. The victim suffered damages as a result of the misrepresentation.

III. Three categories of occupational fraud and abuse

The occupational fraud and abuse is divided in three categories; Asset misappropriation schemes, fraudulent statement and corruption.

ØAsset Misappropriation Schemes. Asset misappropriation schemes include both the theft of company assets (e.g., cash and inventory) and the misuse of company assets (e.g., using a company car for a personal trip). Common examples include skimming revenues, stealing inventory, and payroll fraud.

ØFraudulent Statements. Fraudulent statements primarily consist of falsifying financial statements by overstating revenues and assets, or understating liabilities or expenses. Other fraudulent statements include falsifying credentials, altering test documents, and producing false work reports.

ØCorruption. Corruption schemes are those in which fraudsters wrongfully use their influence in a business dealing to procure some benefit (personal or for another person). This action Is contrary to their duty to their employer or the rights of others

In 16 and 000 the Association of Certified Fraud Examiners (ACFE) survey found that of the three types of fraud schemes, asset misappropriation was by far the most common type of fraud scheme. However, whereas asset misappropriation schemes are the most common, they are the least costly per case.

Fraudulent statements are the most costly schemes per case. In spite of being the most common and the smallest lost per case, asset misappropriation represents the total largest losses of the categories. Fraudulent statements, on the other hand, have the lowest total losses. This result is because fewer cases of fraudulent statements are reported. As the illustrate in the following table that present a comparison between the 16 and 00 data regarding the frequency and cost of occupational fraud categories. We found that this data remained relatively stable.

0016

Scheme TypePercentage of CasesMedian CostPercentage CasesMedian Cost

Asset Misappropriations85.7$80,00081.1$65,000

Corruption Schemes1.8$50,00014.8$440,000

Fraudulent Statements5.1$4,50,0004.1$4,000,000

Table1. Comparison of major occupational fraud categories by 16&00 DATA

In studying the three types of fraud schemes, the common themes to fraudulent activity are

·Clandestine.

·Violates the employees fiduciary duties to the organization.

·Committed for the purpose of direct or indirect financial benefit to the employee.

·Costs the employer its assets, revenues, or reserves.

The ACFE drew the following conclusions as a result of its study

·Certified Fraud Examiners consider the problem of occupational fraud and abuse to be a very serious one.

·There is a direct correlation between the employees age, gender and position and the median loss due to fraud and abuse.

·Smaller organizations are the most vulnerable to occupational fraud and abuse.

·A lack of understanding of the nature of occupational fraud and abuse adds to its cost.

·Relatively few occupational fraud and abuse offenses are discovered during routine audits.

·The expansion of computers in organizations likely will increase losses due to occupational fraud and abuse.

·The rate of occupational fraud and abuse likely will increase.

IV. Fraud Triangle

When we consider about fraudulent activity, we know that most of them occur from three basic elements; pressure (some of reference call motivation), opportunity and rationalization. We call these three events as the fraud triangle. The absence of any one of the three reduces the chance that fraud will take place.

Three basic elements of fraud

ØPressure. (Some reference call motivation) For a fraud perpetrator to commit a fraud, she has to feel some type of pressure to do so. The pressure may be financial, such as having to pay medical bills or living beyond her means. Alternatively, the pressure may be non-financial, such as desiring to report better than actual performance or self-imposing a challenge to beat the system.

ØOpportunity. The second fraud element is opportunity, which may be real or perceived. Opportunity is the circumstances that allow the perpetrator to find a way to commit the fraud. The perpetrator may take advantage of weak internal control or his position in the organization. For example, a claims examiner in an insurance company may write claims checks to himself because of his ability to generate claims payments as a normal duty.

ØRationalization. The third element that is found in most fraud cases is rationalization. The perpetrator finds a way to make her improper actions consistent with her personal code of conduct. To the fraud perpetrator, she can rationalize that a crime has not actually been committed. Typical rationalizations include borrowing money on a temporary basis, justifying the theft from a sense of being underpaid, or de-personalizing the victim of the theft.

V. The factors that support to committee fraud

Situational pressures leading to fraud

Financial factors

·High personal debts (possibly from credit cards, divorce, medical bills, etc.)

·Significant personal losses

·Inadequate income

·Living beyond one's means

·Financial pressures of family members

Personal habits

·Extensive stock market or other speculation

·Extensive gambling (video poker)

·Illicit sexual involvement with others

·Heavy use of alcohol or drugs

Personal feelings

·Extreme community or social expectations to succeed

·Perception of being treated unfairly or inadequately by the organization

·Resentment of superiors

·Frustration with the job

·Peer group pressures within the community

·Insatiable desire for self-enrichment or personal gain

Opportunities leading to fraud

Personally created opportunities

·Familiarity with operations

·Close association with suppliers and other key people

·A fear encompassing working environment

Company characteristics that create opportunities

·Failure to inform employees about rules and disciplines of fraud perpetrators

·Rapid turnover of key employees

·Absence of mandatory vacations

·Absence of periodic rotations or transfers of employees

·Inadequate personnel screening policies for hiring new employees

·Absence of explicit and uniform personnel policies

·Failure to maintain accurate personnel records of disciplinary actions

·Dishonest or unethical management

·Dominant top management

·Constantly operating under crisis conditions

·Paying little attention to details

·Impersonal relationships or poor morale among employees and management

·Lack of internal security

Personal and psychological characteristic that suggest a high probability of fraud

·A person of low moral character.

·A person who rationalizes a contradictory behavior.

·A person without a strong code of personal ethics.

·A person who is a wheeler dealer.

·A person lacking stability.

·A person with a strong desire to beat the system.

·A person who has a criminal or questionable background.

·A person with a poor credit rating and/or financial status.

VI. The cost of Fraud

It is almost impossible to calculate the cost fraud impose because not all fraud is detected or reported. There is also no organization charged with accumulating data on fraud defense. In order to obtain an estimate of the total losses caused by occupational fraud, the expert who deal with the problem were polled for their opinion. However, the reader should be cautioned that any estimates regarding the cost of fraud are subjective.

From the survey of CFEs (Certified Fraud Examiners), the percentage of revenues that will lose in 00 as a result of occupational fraud and abuse, they projected a mean cost of six percent. This is the same rate as the survey in 16 Report. However, in the intervening period the Gross Domestic Product has risen from approximately $7 trillion to about $10 trillion. Although the expected rate of fraud has remained unchanged, the rising Gross Domestic Product would account for a $00 billion increase in fraud total six years ago.

Picture 1. Occupational Fraud Losses

VII. The Perpetrators

From the result of survey in report to nation in 00, we know that there are a lot of factors that affect the size of the losses that these perpetrators inflict upon their victims. And it is illustrated as the following.

The effect of position

One of the strongest indicators of the size of the loss in an occupational fraud scheme is the position that the perpetrator holds within the victim organization. As the following data shows, schemes committed by managers and executives, on average, cause median losses of $50,000, which was about .5 times as high as losses associated with frauds committed by rank and file employees. Such a relationship could be expected, since higher-level employees have a greater degree of control over company assets.

Picture . Position of Perpetrator

The effect of Gender

The following chart reflects the relative frequency and median losses for males and female. Although the number of schemes committed by the two sexes was roughly the same, losses from schemes committed by males were more than three times as high as the losses caused by females. We conclude that the link between gender and loss is reflective of the "glass ceiling" phenomenon. Losses are strongly related to the perpetrator's position, and in many organizations the vast majority of managerial and executive positions are still held males.

Picture . Gender of perpetrator

The effect of age

There was a direct correlation between age and median loss as perpetrators got older their schemes got more costly. Median loses for the oldest employees (those older than 60) were $500,000, which was 7 times higher than losses caused by employees under 6 years old of age. As with gender, however, we postulate that age is a secondary factor with regard to losses, the primary factor being that older employees tend to occupy more senior positions with greater access to assets.

Although some studies suggest that younger employees are more likely to commit occupational crimes, the data in the report to nation of CFE in00 didn't not support that contention. Only six percent of frauds in their survey were committed individuals below the age of 6. Meanwhile, two-thirds of the frauds were committed by persons over the age of 5, and nearly half of all schemes were committed by individuals between the ages of 6 and 50.

The effect of education

In general, those with higher levels of education tend to have higher position in an organization and greater access to asset. As the age and gender, it would appear the link between education and loss is mainly a function of the employee's position in the organization.

Losses caused be penetrates who had college degrees were about .5 times as high as losses causes by perpetrators with only high school with only high school diplomas. However, the mean loss for perpetrators with postgraduate degrees was approximately $80,000 less than the median loss for those with only undergraduate degrees.

The effect of collusion

From the report 00, we know that the cost of occupational fraud tends to rise when multiple parties act in collusion. The median cost of fraud based on the number of perpetrators, regardless of position. While it was much more common for a fraud to be committed by a single perpetrator (68% of cases), the mean loss in schemes with multiple perpetrators was $450,000, which was almost seven times higher than the losses caused by perpetrators who acted alone.

Criminal history of perpetrators

The following chart shows that only about seven percent of occupational fraud perpetrators were known to have been convicted for a previous crime, and only another three percent were know to have been previously charged for a fraud-related offense. This is consistent with other studies that have shown most people who commit fraud are first- time offenders.

Picture 4. Criminal history of perpetrators

VIII. How do we prevent, deter and detect fraud?

An organization can take to prevent, deter and detect fraud from three

fundamental actions

·Creating a culture of honesty and high ethics. It is the organization's responsibility to create a culture of honesty and high ethics and to clearly communicate acceptable behavior and expectations of each employee. Such a culture rooted in a strong set of core values (or value system) that provides the foundation for employees as to how the organization conducts its business. It also allows an entity to develop an ethical framework that covers (1) fraudulent financial reporting, () misappropriation of assets and () corruption .

An organization can creating a culture of honesty and high ethics by directors and officers of corporations set the tone at the top for ethical behavior within any organization. Senior financial officers hold an important and elevated role in corporate governance. As members of the management team, they are uniquely capable and empowered to ensure that all stakeholders interests are appropriately balanced, protected and preserved.

Second step is to creating a positive workplace environment. Research results indicate that wrongdoing occurs less frequently when employees have positive feelings about an entity than when they feel abused, threatened, or ignored. Without a positive workplace environment, there are more opportunities for poor employee morale, which can affect an employee's attitude about committing fraud against an entity.

Third step is hiring and promoting appropriate employees. Each employees has a unique set of values and personal code of ethics. When face with sufficient pressure and a perceives opportunity, some employees will behave dishonestly rather face the negative consequences of honest behavior. Therefore, the company has to have effective policies that minimize the chance of hiring or promoting individuals with low levels of honesty, especially for position of trust.

Forth step is training. New employees should be trained at the time of hiring about the entity's values and its code of conduct. This training should explicitly cover expectations of all employees regarding (1) their duty to communicate certain matters; () a list of types of matters, including actual or suspected fraud, to be communicated along with specific examples; and () information on how to communicate those matters.

Fifth step is confirmation. Management need to clearly articulate that all employees will be hold accountable to act within the entity's code of product. All employees within senior management and the finance function, as well as other employees in area that might be exposed to unethical behavior should be required to sign a code of conduct statement annually, at a minimum. Requiring periodic confirmation by employees of their responsibilities will not only reinforce the policy but may also deter individuals from committing fraud and other violations and might identify problems before they become significant.

Final step is discipline. The way an entity reacts to incidents of alleged fraud will send a strong deterrent message throughout the entity, helping to reduce the number of future occurrences. Expectations about the consequences of committing fraud must be clearly communicated throughout the entity. Seeing that other people have been disciplined for wrongdoing can be effective deterrent, increasing the perceived likelihood of violators being caught and punished. It also can demonstrate that the entity is committed to an environment of high ethnical standard and integrity.

·Evaluating anti-fraud processes and controls. Neither fraudulent financial reporting nor misappropriation of assets can occur without a perceived opportunity to commit and conceal the act. Organizations should be proactive in reducing fraud opportunities by

- identifying and measuring fraud risks- In identifying fraud risks,

organization should consider organizational, industry, and country-specific characteristics that influence the risk of fraud. The nature and extent of management's risk assessment activities should be commensurate with the size of the entity and complexity of its operations. However, management should recognize that fraud can occur in organizations of any size or type, and that almost any employee may capable of committing fraud given the right set of circumstances. Accordingly, management should develop a heightened "fraud awareness" and an appropriate fraud risk-management program, with oversight from the board of directors or audit committee.

- taking steps to mitigate identified risks It may be possible to

reduce or eliminate certain fraud risk by making changes to the entity's activities and processes. An entity may choose to sell certain segments of its operations, cease doing business in certain locations, or reorganize its business processes to eliminate unacceptable risks.

- implementing and monitoring effective internal controls- Some risks are inherent in the environment of the entity, but most can be addressed with an appropriate system of internal control. Once fraud risk assessment has taken place the entity can identify the processes, controls, and other procedures that are needed to mitigate the identified risks. Effective internal control will include a well-developed control environment, an effective and secure information system, and appropriate control and monitoring activities. Because of the importance of information technology in supporting operations and the processing of transactions, management also needs to implement and maintain appropriate controls, whether automated or manual, over computer-generated information.

·Developing an appropriate oversight process. To prevent or deter fraud, an organization should have an appropriate oversight function in place. The audit committee should evaluate managements identification of fraud risks, implementation of anti-fraud measures and creation of the right tone at the top. It should also make sure that senior management, particularly the CEO, has anti-fraud measures in place to protect investors, employees and other stakeholders. The audit committee also plays an important role in helping the board of directors fulfill its responsibilities to oversee the companys financial reporting procedures and system of internal controls.

IX. Auditor Responsibilities

Responsibilities for fraud may differ by both the type of engagement and the type of auditor. The external auditor may take a different view than an internal auditor. Still, the fraud examiner may take a view different from that of the internal or external auditor. Each of the roles and responsibilities will be described.

External Auditor Responsibilities

The American Institute of Certified Public Accountants Auditing Standards Board (hereafter referred to as professional standards) issued the current fraud standard in 17, which provides guidance to external auditors in fulfilling responsibility for the detection and reporting of fraud. This standard is codified as AU 16 (SAS 8) in the Codification of Statements on Auditing Standards. Professional standards describe the external auditors responsibility as

The auditor has a responsibility to plan and perform the audit to obtain reasonable assurance about whether the financial statements are free of material misstatement, whether caused by error or fraud. Because of the nature of audit evidence and the characteristics of fraud, the auditor is able to obtain reasonable, but not absolute, assurance that material misstatements are detected. The auditor has no responsibility to plan and perform the audit to obtain reasonable assurance that misstatements, whether caused by errors or fraud, that are not material to the financial statements are detected.

Professional standards address seven major areas

·Describes fraud and its characteristics.

·Requires the auditor to specifically assess whether there is a heightened risk of fraud. Fraud risk factors are listed that should be considered in the auditors assessment.

·Guides the auditor on how to respond when there is a heightened risk of fraud.

·Assists the auditor in evaluating the audit test results as they related to the risk of fraud.

·Suggests documentation requirements if there is a heightened risk of fraud.

·Guides the auditor in modifying the opinion.

·Describes appropriate communications for management, the audit committee and others.

Fraud is considered to be in one of two categories Fraudulent financial reporting (management fraud) and misappropriation of assets (employee fraud).

The risk factors associated with each of the fraud categories are

·Fraudulent financial reporting.

·Management characteristics and influence over the control environment.

·Industry conditions.

·Operating characteristics and financial stability.

·Misappropriation of assets.

·Susceptibility of assets to misappropriation.

·Controls.

In addition to these specific risk factors, auditors may encounter conditions that change or support the initial assessment of fraud risk, including discrepancies in the accounting records, conflicting or missing evidential matter, and problematic or unusual relationships between the auditor and client.

Specific Requirements Under AU 16

·Consider the presence of fraud risk factors. Because certain conditions often have been observed in fraud situations, the auditor should be familiar with these risk factors and be alert for their presence.

·Assess the risk of material misstatement of the financial statements due to fraud. An assessment of the risk of material misstatement due to fraud is required. Although separate from other risk assessments performed during the audit (e.g., control risk, detection risk, inherent risk), it may be performed in conjunction with these. Professional standards require a reevaluation of the assessment if other conditions are identified during fieldwork.

·Develop a response. Based on the fraud risk assessment, an appropriate audit response is required. Depending on the circumstances, the response may be that the existing audit procedures are sufficient to obtain reasonable assurance that the financial statements are free of material misstatement due to fraud, or planned audit procedures may need to be extended.

·Document certain items in the workpapers. Professional standards require documentation of the evidence of the performance of the risk assessment. Documentation should include risk factors identified as being present as well as the response to the risk factors.

·Communicate to management. If evidence is found that indicates fraud may exist, the appropriate level of management should be informed. If the suspected fraud would materially misstate the financial statements or was committed by senior management, the auditor is required to communicate directly with the audit committee.

Risk Factors of Management Fraud

Professional standards set for the examples of the types of items the auditor should consider as heightening the risk of fraud

·Managements characteristics and influence over the control environment (1) Compensation tied to reported measures. () Failure to display appropriate attitude about internal control. () Non-financial managements excessive participation in accounting principles and estimates. (4) High turnover of senior management, counsel or board members. (5) Strained relationship with current or predecessor auditor. (6) Known history of securities law violations.

·Industry conditions (1) New accounting, statutory, or regulatory requirements that could impair financial stability or profitability. () High degree of competition accompanied by declining margins. () Declining industry with increasing business failures. (4) Rapid changes in the industry (e.g., product obsolescence, changing technology).

·Operating characteristics and financial stability (1) Inability to generate cash flow while reporting earnings. () Pressure to obtain capital to stay competitive. () Accounts based on significant estimates. (4) Significant related-party transactions. (5) Complex transactions. (6) Bank accounts in tax-haven jurisdictions. (7) Overly complex organizational structure. (8) Difficulty in determining who controls the entity. () Unusually rapid growth or profitability. (10) High vulnerability to interest rates. (11) High dependence on debt. (1) Unrealistically aggressive incentive programs. (1) Threat of bankruptcy. (14) Adverse effect on pending transactions if poor performance reported. (15) Poor financial position and management has guaranteed the debts.

Risk Factors of Employee Fraud

Professional standards set for the examples of the types of items the auditor should

consider as heightening the risk of fraud

·Susceptibility of assets to misappropriation. (1) Large amounts of cash on hand or processed. () Inventory characteristics, such as small size, high value, or high demand. () Easily convertible assets, such as bearer bonds, diamonds or computer chips. (4) Fixed asset characteristics, such as small size, marketability or lack of ownership identification.

·Risk factors relating to controls. (1) Lack of appropriate management oversight. () Lack of job applicant screening procedures for employees with access to assets. () Inadequate record keeping with respect to assets. (4) Lack of appropriate segregation of duties. (5) Lack of appropriate system of authorization and approval. (6) Poor physical safeguards over cash, investments, inventory, or fixed assets. (7) Lack of timely and appropriate documentation for transactions. (8) Lack of mandatory vacations for employees performing key control functions.

Private Securities Litigation Reform Act

The Private Securities Litigation Reform Act has drastically changed the procedures

and proof required in securities fraud cases. The Reform Act also includes new responsibilities for independent auditors of public companies. Audits of the financial statements of a public company must include the following

·Procedures designed to provide reasonable assurance of detecting illegal acts that would have a direct and material effect on the determination of financial statement amounts.

·Procedures designed to identify related-party transactions that are material to the financial statements or otherwise require disclosure therein.

·An evaluation of whether there is substantial doubt about the ability of the issuer to continue as a going concern during the ensuing fiscal year.

The term illegal act is defined to mean any act or omission that violates any law, rule or regulation having the force of law.

Additionally, if in the course of an audit, an auditor detects or otherwise becomes aware that an illegal act (whether or not perceived to have a material effect on the financial statements of the user) has or may have occurred, the auditor must then

·Determine whether it is likely that an illegal act has occurred.

·Determine and consider the possible effect of the illegal act on the financial statements of the entity, including any contingent monetary effects such as fines, penalties and damages.

·Inform the appropriate level of management as soon as practical and assure that the audit committee or board of directors is adequately informed of the illegal acts that have been detected unless such acts are clearly inconsequential.

The Reform Act also provides that the auditor must take notice of what, if any, action is taken by the company in response. If the auditor concludes that the illegal act has a material effect on the financial statements of the entity, the auditor must then determine whether senior management has taken timely and appropriate remedial actions, and whether the failure to take remedial action is reasonably expected to warrant departure from a standard report of the auditor, when made, or warrant resignation from the audit engagement.

If the answer to these questions is yes, then the auditor must report her conclusions to the board of directors. If the board receives such a report, it is required to notify the SEC within one business day and send a copy of the SEC notice to the auditor. If the auditor does not receive a copy of this notice before the one-day deadline, then the auditor is required to furnish the SEC with a copy of her report to the board.

The auditor is provided with some protection, however. The Reform Act expressly provides that the auditor cannot be liable in a private action for any statements contained in the auditors report to the SEC.

Internal Auditor Responsibilities

The source of professional guidance for internal auditors is the Institute of Internal Auditors Statement on Internal Auditing Standards No. , Deterrence, Detection, Investigation, and Reporting of Fraud, which was issued in 185.

Deterrence consists of those actions taken to discourage the perpetration of fraud and to limit the exposure if fraud does occur. The principal mechanism for deterring fraud is control. Primary responsibility for establishing and maintaining control rests with management. Internal auditors are responsible for helping to deter fraud by examining and evaluating the adequacy and the effectiveness of control, commensurate with the extent of the potential exposure or risk in the various segments of the entitys operations.

Detection consists of identifying indicators of fraud that warrant recommending an internal audit examination. These indicators may arise as a result of

·Controls established by management.

·Tests conducted by auditors.

·Other sources within and outside the entity.

The internal auditors responsibilities for detecting fraud during an audit are

·Have sufficient knowledge of fraud to be able to identify indicators that fraud might have been committed.

·Be alert to opportunities, such as control weaknesses, that would allow fraud to occur. Should significant control weaknesses become apparent, internal auditors should conduct additional tests, including tests designed to identify other indicators of fraud.

The internal auditor should recognize that the presence of more than one indicator at any one time increases the probability that fraud might have occurred

·Evaluate indicators that fraud might have been committed and decide whether any further action is necessary, or whether an investigation should be recommended.

·Notify the appropriate authorities within the entity if a determination is made that there are sufficient indicators of fraud to recommend a formal investigation.

The internal auditor is not expected to have knowledge equivalent to that of a person whose primary responsibility is detecting and preventing fraud. Also, audit procedures alone, even when carried out with due professional care, do not guarantee that fraud will be detected.

Fraud examination consists of performing the extended procedures necessary to determine whether fraud has occurred as suggested by the indicators. Examination includes gathering sufficient evidence about the specific details of a discovered fraud.

Internal auditors, lawyers, investigators, security personnel and other specialists from inside or outside the organization are the parties that usually conduct or participate in fraud examinations.

When conducting a fraud examination, the internal auditor should

·Assess the probable level and extent of complicity in the fraud within the entity. This step can be critical in ensuring that the internal auditor does not provide information to, or obtains misleading information from, persons who may be involved.

·Determine the knowledge, skills and disciplines necessary to effectively carry out the examination.

·Assess the qualifications and skills of the internal auditors and specialists available to ensure that individuals conduct the examination whom have the appropriate type and level of expertise.

·Design procedural methodology to identify the perpetrators, extent of the fraud, techniques used and cause of the fraud.

·Coordinate activities with management personnel, legal counsel and other specialists as appropriate throughout the course of the examination.

·Know the rights of the alleged perpetrators and personnel within the scope of the examination and the reputation of the organization itself.

After a fraud examination is concluded, the internal auditor should assess the facts to

·Determine if controls need to be implemented or strengthened to reduce future vulnerability.

·Design audit tests to help discover the existence of similar frauds in the future.

·Help the internal auditor meet his responsibility to maintain sufficient knowledge of fraud to be able to identify indicators in the future.

Reporting of Fraud

Reporting consists of the various oral or written final communications to

management regarding the status and results of the fraud examination. A preliminary or final report often is desirable at the conclusion of the detection phase of an examination. The report should include the auditors conclusion regarding whether sufficient information exists to warrant an examination. The report also should summarize findings that serve as the basis for any action taken.

Professional Reporting Standards for Internal Auditors

SIAS No. , Communicating Results, applies to internal audit reports that are issued as a result of fraud examinations

·Management should be notified immediately after the incidence of significant fraud has been established.

·The results of a fraud examination may indicate that the fraud has had a previously undiscovered, materially adverse effect on the financial position and productivity of an entity for which financial statements have already been issued. The internal auditor should inform appropriate management and the audit committee of such a discovery.

·A written report should be completed at the conclusion of the examination phase. It should include all findings, conclusions, recommendations and corrective actions taken.

·A draft of the proposed report on fraud should be submitted to legal counsel for review. The report should be addressed to counsel in those cases where the auditor chooses to invoke client privilege.

X. Anti-Fraud in 00.

AICPA has developed the design to fight with occupational fraud and abuse and created eight initiatives design to strengthen investor confidence by enhancing the quality of audits in 00. As the foundation of the Anti-Fraud and Corporate Responsibility Program, these initiatives underscore the professions core values and represent opportunities where the profession can lead the way in reform.

·The Institute for Fraud Studies

A collaboration of the AICPA, the University of Texas at Austin and the Association of Certified Fraud Examiners, the Institute will explore the origin of and circumstances surrounding fraud so that its frequency and effects can be minimized.

·New Fraud Standard, SAS

Statement of Auditing Standards , Consideration of Fraud in a Financial Statement Audit, recently approved by the Auditing Standard Board, gives auditors more guidance for detecting material fraud.

·Free Corporate Governance Training Programs

The AICPA is urging the stock exchanges to mandate anti-fraud training for all members of management, boards of directors and audit committees. It is also making available, free of charge, training programs focusing on the roles and responsibilities of management and corporate officials.

·Anti-Fraud Criteria and Controls

The Auditing Standards Board will be working to design new anti-fraud criteria and controls intended to help corporations combat fraud.

·Additional CPE Recommendations for CPAs

The AICPA is calling on CPAs to dedicate 10% of their CPE to fraud.

·Fraud Summit

The summit will bring together corporate leaders, the CPA Profession, and the financial reporting community to identify ways to reduce the incidence of fraud.

·Fraud Specialist Competency Model

The new Fraud Specialist Competency Assessment Tool will help CPAs identify necessary skill sets in the area of fraud detection and deterrence.

·Academia Outreach and Center Support

The AICPA is working with academic institutions and college textbook authors to incorporate anti-fraud education in training materials, courses and textbooks.

Conclusion

Even though occupational fraud and abuse is a serious problem for an organization, it still has a lot of ways to manage and prevent these problems as we refer in this report. The corporation between private and public organization will decrease the degree of violation. However, we need to continue a present program and develop the new program to fight with occupational fraud and abuse that always change their form and increase their complexity. These will help an organization to reduce their cost from occupational fraud and abuse.

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The PIs Reading - Week Ending 6-17-0

 

I read so many good books this week that Im going to save some for next weeks reviews. One of those you can look forward to is The Protector by David Morrell (a Fathers Day gift). It is going to get quite a few stars. Im about / of the way through Greg Iles Dead Sleep, so it will be included next week as well. You will also see the beginnings of my reviews of some of the books in the Howdunit Series for Mystery Writers. Those reviews will also appear in the Writers Corner portion of the web site. So, here is some of what I read this past week.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

Everglades by Randy Wayne White lived up to my high expectations. Due to an accident of geography, the nature of his writing, and the character and philosophy of his protagonist, Randy Wayne Whites Doc Ford series is frequently compared to John D. MacDonalds Travis McGee writings. I make that comparison myself and Randy comes off very well. I wont say he comes off best yet, but it could happen soon. In one sense they are the same. Reading a Travis McGee novel or a Doc Ford novel gives you the full vital signs of the state of Florida at the time the book was written.

Synopsis As a favor to an old friend and lover, Sally Carmel Minster, Doc Ford (apparent mild mannered marine biologist) agrees to help establish whether or not her husband is really dead as a result of a reported fall from a boat out in the Gulf Stream. Geoff, the husband, had in recent years become deeply involved with a popular cult religion and was on the boat with several of the cults members when he disappeared without a trace. He was assumed to have gone overboard during the night.

During the investigation and surrounding events Doc faces a Private Eye from New Jersey, the police, the cult and its security forces, various branches of the local American Indian population, a bar full of Rednecks, a serial killer, and the Everglades. Meanwhile, his closest friend and confidant Tomlinson (possibly the last true hippie) is being increasingly pursued by hordes of admirers as a result of a paper on the philosophy of life which Tomlinson had written in college and which paper was being discovered on the internet. In the end Doc must also face the most difficult threats of all from his inner self and numerous ghosts from his past.

I give this book my highest rating - Five Stars - and Im starting it over again from page one just to be able to enjoy it at a more leisurely pace.

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I started reading Persuader, the new Jack Reacher novel by Lee Child, with some misgivings. I thought Echo Burning ( books back) was just awful and that Without Fail (the last book) was only OK. So it was a pleasant surprise to find Persuader to be compelling, action packed and full of good suspense and mystery.

In the explosive opening Reacher is involved in foiling an in-progress kidnapping and helping the victim, a young man, escape from the bad guys. He takes the terrified young man home to the family compound in Maine. The head of the family is obviously a mobster and in spite of Reachers heroics he is locked up with his future very much in doubt. Also on Reachers mind is an incident that took place in Boston just days earlier. While walking in downtown Boston, he sees a man come out of symphony hall and get into a limo. A man he is sure he killed 10 years earlier. As these two threads begin to intertwine the pace and the suspense picks up and Reacher begins killing people at the Maine compound in order to stay alive himself.

There were very few times in the book when I wasnt concerned for Reachers safety and survival. There were plenty of surprises for the reader. I quite enjoyed the book. I give it 4 Stars.

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On July 1st we will have a story on a new book by Barry Eisler called Hard Rain. As I put together the write-up I got interested. This is the second book featuring highly paid Tokyo assassin John Rain and so I went and got the first book called Rain Fall.

John Rain is of one American parent and one Japanese parent and doesnt completely fit into either society, but is most comfortable in Japan. He works as an assassin using skills learned in the military. His specialty is making the deaths of his victims seem natural or at worst accidental. He has three simple rules 1. No women or children; . Exclusive assignments (no other assassins involved); and . The target must be a principal. John doesnt kill to send a message to someone higher up. His latest assignment goes without a hitch, but killing the target doesnt solve the clients problem and things start to get complicated for John Rain as he goes from hunter to hunted, from assassin to target. It was an interesting and rewarding read.

Ill say right off that I had difficulty staying into the book for the first 50 or 60 pages because of all the Japanese names, phrases, etc. But the story and writing were good enough that I kept going and pretty soon didnt notice that problem any more. (I must have finally adjusted) The book is written in the first person and because assassinating people is pretty much a lonely job, there is a noticeable lack of dialog in the first 1/ of the book. None the less, I give this book a strong recommendation, 1/ Stars, and will read the new one when it is available next month. I also added this series to our series section on the web site.

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Respectfully Submitted,

The Private Eye

 

 

Posted by The Private Eye on Jun 17, 00 - 0851 AM

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Shamus Winner for Best First PI Novel!

 

Chasing the Devils Tail

By David Fulmer

ISBN 0156078

Format Paperback, 48pp

Pub. Date June 00

Publisher Harcourt Brace & Company

Awards Winner 00 Shamus - Best 1st PI Novel.

 

Storyville, 107 In this raucous, bloody, red-light district, where two thousand scarlet women ply their trade in grand mansions and filthy dime-a-trick cribs, where cocaine and opium are sold over the counter, and where rye whiskey flows like an amber river, theres a killer loose. Someone is murdering Storyville prostitutes and marking each killing with a black rose. As Creole detective Valentin St. Cyr begins to unravel the murder against this extraordinary backdrop, he encounters a cast of characters drawn from history Tom Anderson, the political boss who runs Storyville like a private kingdom; Lulu White, the districts most notorious madam; a young piano player who would come to be known as Jelly Roll Morton; and finally, Buddy Bolden, the man who all but invented jazz and is now losing his mind.

No ordinary mystery, Chasing the Devils Tail is a chilling portrait of musical genius and self-destruction, set at the very moment when jazz was born.

About the Author David Fulmer has been a writer and video and film producer for the past sixteen years. Love in Vain," his treatment of the life and death of blues legend Robert Johnson, was a Finalist in the Nicholls Fellowship Screenplay Competition. Another screenplay, Blame, was a Finalist in the Writers Network Screenplay Competition. "black cat bone," a screenplay based on his short story by the same name which appeared as the cover story in the April 16 issue of Blues Access - won First Prize in the Southeastern Screenwriting Competition.

A native of Pennsylvania, David Fulmer lives in Atlanta with his daughter Italia.

 

 

Posted by The Private Eye on Jun 17, 00 - 005 AM

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Judgment Calls - Debut of James Lee Burkes Daughter

 

Judgment Calls

By Alafair Burke

ISBN 080507868

Format Hardcover, 7pp

Pub. Date July 00

Publisher Henry Holt & Company

Series Samantha Kincaid # 1

 

A seemingly simple assault case spirals into a complex web of violence and deception in this bold debut thriller

Deputy District Attorney Samantha Kincaid walks into her office in Portland's Drug and Vice Division one Monday morning to find three police officers waiting for her. A thirteen-year-old girl has been brutally attacked and left for dead on the city's outskirts. Given the lack of evidence, most lawyers would settle for an assault charge; Samantha, unnerved by the viciousness of the crime, decides to go for attempted murder. But as she prepares for the trial, she uncovers a dangerous trail leading to a high-profile death penalty case, a prostitution ring of underage girls, and a possible serial killer. And she finds her judgmentnot only in matters of the law but in her personal lifecalled into question.

In Samantha Kincaid, Alafair Burke has created a complex, appealing charactera woman consumed by a sense of justice, who is also tough enough to take on a man's world. Seamlessly juxtaposing courtroom scenes with those of criminal investigation, Judgment Calls reveals not only an insider's knowledge of the criminal justice system but a fresh new voice in the world of crime writing.

About the Author A former deputy district attorney in Portland, Alafair Burke now teaches criminal law at Hofstra School of Law and lives in Long Island, New York. She is the daughter of acclaimed crime writer James Lee Burke.

Note This is the first of a series and may have some collecting value in the future.

The Private Eye

 

Posted by The Private Eye on Jun 17, 00 - 010 AM

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Seizure - New Medical Thriller from Robin Cook

 

Seizure

By Robin Cook

ISBN 0148760

Format Hardcover, 84pp

Pub. Date July 14, 00

Publisher Putnam Publishing Group

 

Senator Ashley Butler is a quintessential Southern demagogue whose support of traditional American values includes a knee-jerk reaction against virtually all biotechnologies. When hes called to chair a subcommittee introducing legislation to ban new cloning technology, the senator views his political future in bold relief; and Dr. Daniel Lowell, inventor of the technique that will take stem cell research to the next level, sees a roadblock positioned before his biotech startup.

The two seemingly opposite personalities clash during the senate hearings, but the men have a common desire. Butlers hunger for political power far outstrips his concern for the unborn; and Lowells pursuit of gargantuan personal wealth and celebrity overrides any considerations for patients well-being. Further complicating the proceedings is the confidential news that Senator Butler has developed Parkinsons disease-leading the senator and the researcher into a Faustian pact. In a perilous attempt to prematurely harness Lowells new technology, the therapy leaves the senator with the horrifying effects of temporal lobe epilepsy-seizures of the most bizarre order.

Torn from the headlines, Seizure is a cautionary tale for a time where biotechnology pulls us into a promising yet frightening new world.

About the Author Dr. Robin Cook is currently on leave from the Massachusetts Eye and Ear Infirmary.

Note Pre-order now to be among the first to read this new blockbuster.

 

Posted by The Private Eye on Jun 16, 00 - 011 AM

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Dirty Laundry - rd in the Charlotte Justice Series

 

Dirty Laundry

By Paula L. Woods

ISBN 045457005

Format Hardcover, 04pp

Pub. Date July 00

Publisher Ballantine Books

Series Charlotte Justice #

 

For Charlotte and her team, the case begins when a woman's body is found in L.A.'s Koreatown district, where a series of robberies and murders has already put besieged merchants on edge. Now the spectacle of a bright, successful young Korean woman found bludgeoned and bound in an alley is stirring fears, passions, and city politics. In the hours after Vicki Park's murder, Charlotte Justice must contend with a complex crime scene and a beleaguered community's hostility toward the police.

Interestingly enough, Vicki (like Charlotte) lived and worked in two different worlds her close-knit Korean community and the wider political world where she served as a special aide to handsome, media-savvy Mike Santos, whose is vying to become L.A.'s first Latino mayor. With twenty-four candidates running to replace a long-standing African American incumbent, the mayor's race is shaping up as a wild brawl, full of dirty tricks and innuendo. Is Vicki's murder connected to the campaign or is the answer to be found in the ethnic enclave that nurtured Vickiand that may now be hiding her killer?

While Charlotte searches for answers, she must also navigate the perils of life in the LAPD, which complicates her personal life, namely her budding relationship with Aubrey Scott, an emergency-room physician. Justifying her relentless hunt for Vicki's killer as part of her mission as a homicide detective, Charlotte must face the possibility that her motivation may also be to ease the pain she feels over the violent death of her husband and young daughter years beforea possibility that is challenged in unexpected ways.

About the Author Paula is a member of Mystery Writers of America, the International Association of Crime Writers, and Sisters in Crime. She has also served as an Edgar judge, on the Author Committee of the Los Angeles Times Festival of Books and speaker at the festival. A native of Los Angeles, Paulas lifelong love of books has resulted in the growth of her personal library to over 1,000 volumes.

 

 

Posted by The Private Eye on Jun 15, 00 - 0101 AM

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The Track of the Cat by Nevada Barr

 

Track of the Cat (An Anna Pigeon Mystery)

By Nevada Barr

ISBN 0451088

Format Mass Market Paperback, 7pp

Pub. Date June 00

Publisher Berkley Publishing Group

Series Anna Pigeon Mystery Series

A Mystery of the Century

 

A stunning mystery set against the high-country trails of the Guadalupe Mountains of West Texas, where the age-old battle of man against nature is fought with a frightening twist. Anna Pigeon has fled New York and her memories to find work as a ranger in the countrys national parks. In the remote backcountry of West Texas, however, she discovers murder and violence. Fellow park ranger Sheila Drury is mysteriously killed, presumably by a mountain lion. But the deep claw marks Anna finds across Drurys throat and the paw prints surrounding the body are too perfect to be real. Suspicious from the start and eager to prevent the needless slaughter of her beloved cougars, Anna cant let the matter rest.

The disappearance of another ranger and the frightening reality of a hiking accident of her own convince Anna that something is very wrong. Following a trail with few leads, Anna must confront the dark side of the desert. As she comes closer to the truth, she realizes that whatever is stalking the land she loves is now stalking her as well. Atmospheric, evocative, and rich in the mysterious secrets of the Southwestern wilderness, Track of the Cat marks the mystery debut of a superior writer.

About the Author Nevada was born in the small western town of Yerington, Nevada and raised on a mountain airport in the Sierras. Both her parents were pilots and mechanics and her sister, Molly, continued the tradition by becoming a pilot for USAir.

Pushed out of the nest, Nevada fell into the theatre, receiving her BA in speech and drama and her MFA in Acting before making the pilgrimage to New York City, then Minneapolis, MN. For eighteen years she worked on stage, in commercials, industrial training films and did voice overs for radio. During this time she became interested in the environmental movement and began working in the National Parks during the summers first Isle Royale in Michigan, then Guadalupe Mountains, TX, Mesa Verde and then on the Natchez Trace Parkway in Mississippi.

At present, Nevada lives in Clinton, MS. She is working on the next Anna Pigeon. She also has a book of introspective meditations entitled Seeking Enlightenment...Hat by Hat which will be released by G. P. Putnam and Sons in June, 00.

Note When I introduced the 100 Best Mysterys of the Century I promised to feature about one a week. Here is the first.

Track of the Cat, the first in the Anna Pigeon series and winner of both the Anthony and the Agatha for best first novel, is set in Guadalupe Mountains National Park in Texas. It is listed as one of the 100 best mysteries of the 0th Century and I certainly agree. If you read this one then youre gonna be hooked for the entire series. It is one of my favorites too. Enjoy!

The Private Eye

 

Posted by The Private Eye on Jun 1, 00 - 0148 AM

comments? ||

 

Death Row, From The Author of Criminal Intent

 

Death Row

By William Bernhardt

ISBN 045441745

Format Hardcover, 0pp

Pub. Date July 00

Publisher Random House

Series Ben Kincaid # 1

 

William Bernhardt's powerful series of legal thrillers featuring crusading attorney Ben Kincaid have won him a die-hard following and widespread critical acclaim as a "master of the courtroom drama" (Library Journal). Now, on the heels of his national bestseller Criminal Intent, William Bernhardt returns with his most electrifying novel to date.

Oklahoma attorney Ben Kincaid put his reputation on the line when he represented Ray Goldman. The seemingly mild-mannered industrial chemist was charged with a staggeringly brutal crime the torture and massacre of an entire suburban Tulsa family. But in spite of the grisly, tabloid-ready details of the sensational case, Ben's deft defense against a lack of hard evidence and improper police procedure made an acquittal all but certain. Until the prosecution's star witnessthe lone survivor of the slaughtertook the stand . . . and sealed Ray Goldman's fate.

Seven years later, Goldman's date with the death chamber is at hand. But seconds before the lethal injection, an eleventh-hour reprieve halts the executionand launches Ben on a race against time to overturn Ray Goldman's conviction. Erin Faulkner, the young woman who narrowly escaped the carnage that claimed her family, has abruptly recanted her testimony, after years of silence desperate to keep an innocent man from dying. Just as suddenly, this near-miraculous turn of events turns tragic Erin is discovered dead, an apparent suicide. And Ben Kincaid is the only witness to her stunning confession.

Ben is certain Erin didn't commit suicide. She was a victim of murdersilenced by the samekiller who butchered her family. All Ben has to do is prove it. But his unseen enemy is determined to cover his tracks once and for all . . . with blood.

About the Author William Bernhardt is the author of sixteen books, including Primary Justice, Double Jeopardy, Silent Justice, Murder One, and Criminal Intent. He has twice won the Oklahoma Book Award for Best Fiction, and in 000 he was presented the H. Louise Cobb Distinguished Author Award "in recognition of an outstanding body of work in which we understand ourselves and American society at large." A former trial attorney, Bernhardt has received several awards for his public service. He lives in Tulsa with his wife, Kirsten, and their children, Harry, Alice, and Ralph.

 

 

Posted by The Private Eye on Jun 1, 00 - 0111 AM

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Solomon Jones Second Novel - The Bridge

 

The Bridge

By Solomon Jones

ISBN 0106156

Format Hardcover, 4pp

Pub. Date April 00

Publisher St. Martins Press

 

Sometimes, Philadelphia Police Detective Kevin Lynch feels he has spent his whole life trying to put his past firmly behind him. But a frantic call for help from a childhood friend whose child has gone missing changes all that.

Now Lynch must summon the courage to return to his childhood home, the infamous projects known as The Bridge. As the case unfolds and the search for Kenya, the missing girl, intensifies, the secrets guarded by her family and friends begin to emerge. And the hidden truths are more sinister and malevolent than Lynch could ever imagine, and once again, The Bridge threatens to be his downfall.

Solomon Joness The Bridge is a gritty, suspenseful novel in which the root causes of crime share the stage with their tragic consequences, allowing an intimate window into ghetto life.

About the Author Solomon Jones is a senior contributing editor for Philadelphia Weekly and the author of Pipe Dream. He is a native of Philadelphia, where he lives with his family.

 

 

Posted by The Private Eye on Jun 1, 00 - 0116 AM

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G.M. Fords rd Frank Corso Novel - A Blind Eye

 

A Blind Eye A Novel

By G. M. Ford

ISBN 0807875X

Format Hardcover, 04pp

Pub. Date July 1, 00

Publisher HarperCollins Publishers

Series Frank Corso #

 

The rules never mattered much to Frank Corso, rogue reporter, successful true crime writer, and honorable loner with a dangerous edge. The fact that two Texas troopers have a warrant with his name on it means nothing to him -- except run -- which he does in the company of photojournalist Meg Dougherty, his former lover and perhaps one true friend. But the running stops when a furious Midwestern blizzard sends their car crashing to the bottom of an icy hill, and they are forced to seek an escape from the storm in an abandoned Wisconsin house of horrors.

In a shed outside their temporary shelter a shocking discovery awaits Meg and Corso human bones -- a lot of them -- the grisly remains of Eldred Holmes and his family. A hideous crime undetected for fifteen years is about to become a top priority for the understaffed local law, who want Corso to investigate. His first move will be to somehow locate the one family member who escaped the carnage, Eldreds wife, Sissy, whose skeleton is not among the others ... and whose face has been neatly scissored from every picture in the Holmes family album.

With only eight days to solve a multiple homicide, Corso begins a hunt that will carry him halfway across the country and through a chilling history of violence, terror, and bloodshed that spreads from the small town of Avalon, Wisconsin, to the remote farmlands of New York State. And his single-minded pursuit will make Corso a marked man -- the target of a rage- driven maniac, a master of cunning reinvention -- as he draws closer to the shocking truth thats hidden away in an isolated mountain community, where no law protects the innocent.

About the Author G.M. Ford is the author of Fury, the critically acclaimed debut of Frank Corso, as well as six highly praised mysteries featuring Seattle private investigator Leo Waterman. A former creative writing teacher in western Washington, Ford lives in Seattle and is currently working on his next Frank Corso novel.

Note Ive read everything G.M. Ford has written and thoroughly enjoyed it Im eagerly looking forward to this one. Order now for prompt delivery.

The Private Eye

 

Posted by The Private Eye on Jun 1, 00 - 0116 AM

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Claire and Present Danger - New Amanda Pepper Mystery

 

Claire and Present Danger

By Gillian Roberts

ISBN 04545401

Format Hardcover, 40pp

Pub. Date June 00

Publisher The Random House Publishing Group

Series Amanda Pepper Mystery # 11

 

Amanda and C.K. Mackenzie are both experimenting with new roles. C.K. has traded investigating homicides for exploring their causes hes now a full-time Ph.D. candidate in criminology. He moonlights as a PI and Amanda helps out in the office after-school, mostly doing clerical work. But the day school begins, she receives her first solo assignment to interview an elderly woman named Claire Fairchild who wants her future daughter-in-law-a woman with a muddled past that includes too many dead lovers-investigated.

Despite all the blockades the young woman seems to have erected, including what her actual name is, within twenty-four hours, Amanda and C.K. unearth information about her past -- but when they rush to deliver the news to their client, theyre told she died the night before.

With that, the case is officially closed -- but when Claire Fairchilds death turns out to be anything but natural, its also anything but closed.

Through all of this, Amanda is teaching, coping with the problems of an ostracized ninth grade girl, her ever-annoying headmaster, a parent who demands a new kind of censorship and most of all, the impending visit of both her parents and her future in-laws, a combination shes sure also spells trouble.

PRAISE

C.K. and Amanda could be the new Nick and Nora.

Publishers Weekly

Amanda Pepper [is] young, sparky, funny, tough... And as her fans have already discovered, shes nobody to to mess with, either.

Booklist

...a delightful book with plenty of twists and turns and interesting characters, and a believable protagonist.

Mysterious Women

...Gillian Roberts invests Philadelphia prep-school teacher Amanda Pepper with a hip sensibility that makes Claire and Present Danger fresh and lively... Literature and life, seasoned with a little Louisiana witchcraft brought to the Main Line by Mackenzies mother, twine together nicely here. Roberts has gentle fun with the institutional politics of marriage and private schools. It all adds up to fun for the reader, too.

The Baltimore Sun

About the Author Gillian Roberts is the nom de mystère of mainstream novelist Judith Greber. Winner of the Anthony Award for Best First Mystery for Caught Dead in Philadelphia, she is also the author of 11 books in the Amanda Pepper series and in the Emma Howe series. Formerly an English teacher in Philadelphia, Gillian Roberts now lives in California.

 

 

Posted by The Private Eye on Jun 11, 00 - 017 AM

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Betrayed - Chilling Thriller from Brendan DuBois

 

Betrayed

By Brendan DuBois

ISBN 0110188

Format Hardcover, 04pp

Pub. Date June 00

Publisher St. Martins Press

 

For nearly three decades, the fate of ,000 american servicemen, missing in action in Vietnam, has remained a mystery. Now, with the ring of a doorbell, the mystery of some is about to be solved.

Smalltown newspaper editor Jason Harper answers his door in the middle of the night to see an older man, shabbily dressed, with gray hair and a beard. And in a split second, Jasons life turns upside down. The man claims to be Jasons older brother Roy, shot down over North Vietnam in 17.

Jasons joy at reuniting with his brother is quickly tempered as ruthless killers begin pursuing his family and friends, and as his faith in the mans claims threatens to tear his family apart -- even if they do all make it out alive. Author Brendan DuBois pulls readers along for a harrowing ride on a deadly mission to reveal the truth.

About the Author Brendan DuBois is a former newspaper reporter and a lifelong resident of New Hampshire, where he lives with his wife Mona and their neurotic cat, Oreo. DuBois has had more than 70 short stories published in such magazines as Playboy, Mary Higgins Clark Mystery Magazine, Ellery Queens Mystery Magazine and Alfred Hitchcocks Mystery Magazine, as well as in numerous original short fiction anthologies. In 15, one of his short stories -- The Necessary Brother -- won the Shamus Award for Best Short Story of the Year from the Private Eye Writers of America, and the PWA also awarded him the Shamus in 001 for his short story, The Road's End. He has also been nominated three times -- most recently in 17 -- for an Edgar Allan Poe Award from the Mystery Writers of America for his short fiction. One of his short stories in 17 was also nominated for the Anthony Award for Best Mystery Short Story of the Year.

 

 

Posted by The Private Eye on Jun 11, 00 - 0108 AM

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The PIs Reading & Web Events - Week Ending 6-10

 

My reading this week was somewhat restricted by the amount of time spent on new features and functions on the web site. Newly added is The Writers Corner. You will find a Writers Corner Block in the upper left hand portion of the home page and you will find Writers Corner links on both the Book Menu and the Main Menu. The block itself will be moved around from time to time but the menu entries will always be there.

The Writers Corner is designed to concentrate in one place many of the resources available to the aspiring author. Be sure and check it out regularly as many articles will appear in that section of the web site which have not appeared in the regular news or anywhere else on the site. I will be expanding this section and its resources as time permits.

Summer is a great time to write a mystery. Im kind of getting the urge myself. If you decide to try writing a mystery novel, submit your first chapter (using the Submit News link on the Main Menu) and we will publish it for comments and suggestions either in the Writers Corner or in a special section yet to be decided. I think maybe Ill get started on my first Mystery Novel right now!

We have added the Pulitzer Prize for Fiction to our Book Awards section covering all the winners from 118 to the present. We have also added a report of all of the Pulitzer winners for 00. The Arthur Ellis awards have been updated to include the recently announced awards for 00.

Now her is what I have been reading this past week

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I finished Donna Andrews Click Here for Murder and it is a satisfactory second installment in the Turing Hopper Mystery series. It follows Youve Got Murder, her award winning debut novel (I use the word satisfactory in the same way Nero Wolfe uses it when praising something Archie Goodwin has done well). Turing is an AIP, Artificial Intelligence Personality, (a computer) which has developed humanlike qualities and a penchant for finding trouble and playing Private Eye

In Click Here for Murder, Turing, while performing her normal monitoring of incoming mail and voice messages, learns that the police are asking for someone at Alan Grace to call them back concerning a Mr. Rafael Santiago. Ray is the Systems Engineer designing and building the new home for Turing at Alan Grace, Turings company. Turing later learns that Ray was killed, the apparent victim of a mugging gone wrong. Turing suspect possible deliberate murder and enlists her human friends Maude Graham and Tim Pincoski, and her AIP friend, KingFischer in the investigation. The clues lead from Washington D. C. to Florida to Silicon Valley in California. Could Rays murder be connected with the shadowy, sinister forces behind an unusually violent online computer game? Then Turning comes under a deadly online worm attack that threatens her very survival. The stunning conclusion of the book will leave readers satisfied, and at the same time eager for more. I look forward to the next Turing Hopper adventure. I give Donna and Turing four stars.

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Erle Stanley Gardner, author of the famous Perry Mason series, wrote (under the pen name A.A. Fair) from the 10s through the 160s a Private Eye series Featuring Donald Lam and Bertha Cool. Im not going to review the books, but this week I read Bats Fly at Dusk, Up for Grabs and Owls Dont Blink; all from that series.

Get one of these classics from your local public library and enjoy the fruits of pulp era mystery fiction at its best.

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I will end this report in the same manner as Kinsey Millhone does at the end of each of the ABC books..

Respectfully Submitted,

The Private Eye

 

 

Posted by The Private Eye on Jun 10, 00 - 0 AM

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Off the Chart from James W. Hall

 

Off the Chart

By James W. Hall

ISBN 0171786

Format Hardcover, 5pp

Pub. Date May 00

Publisher St. Martins Minotaur

Series Thorn # 8

 

Passion and intrigue heat up the Florida Keys as Thorn and Alexandra Rafferty--returning from

Blackwater Sound---face down a brutal killer who has kidnapped the daughter of Thorns best friend.

Before Alexandra came into Thorns live, there had been Anne Joy, a beautiful woman who, after escaping the violence of her past, found something like happiness in the languid life of the Florida Keys. And her past includes her sadistic brother Vic, now a wealthy rogue businessman who specializes in the hijacking of pleasure boats and who delights in cruelly murdering their owners. Vic is obsessed by his sister and will do whatever it takes to drive her lovers away---even murder. When Vic decides that he must possess the land on which Thorns beloved home is built, nothing will stand in his way---not even the life of a little girl, the daughter of Thorns closest friend. From the lushness of the Florida Keys to a nightmare climax on the tropical coast of Central America, Off the Chart is vintage Hall.

About the Author Although James Hall was born in Hopkinsville, Kentucky, he has spent the last thirty-five years in Florida.

He graduated from Florida Presbyterian College (now Eckerd College) in the late Sixties. He went on to do graduate work at Johns Hopkins and University of Utah, and he's been teaching literature and creative writing at Florida International University for the last 8 years. Many of his former students have gone on to publish novels of their own. Dennis Lehane, Barbara Parker, Vicki Hendricks and Chris Kling all studied with Jim.

 

 

Posted by The Private Eye on Jun 10, 00 - 010 AM

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Stealing for a Living - nd in the Emma Price Series

 

Stealing for a Living

By Naomi R. Rand

ISBN 006016

Format Hardcover, 56pp

Pub. Date May 00

Publisher HarperCollins Publishers

Series Emma Price #

 

The author of the acclaimed The One That Got Away, Naomi Rand returns with her second novel in the cutting-edge mystery series featuring the clever and fearless Emma Price.

An investigator with the Capital Defenders Office, Emma Price is assigned to the case of an accused murderer who faces death row unless she can dig up mitigating circumstances. Meanwhile, shes juggling her role as the newly single mother of a toddler and a troubled teenager whos heading down a slippery slope thats all too familiar to her.

Just when it seems things cant get any worse, Emma learns that an old family friend, a controversial political activist, has been murdered. Determined to do whatever she can to find the killer, she steps in to help her prickly lover, Laurence Solomon, a New York City detective, in his efforts to solve the crime. Before long she uncovers dark family secrets that force her to confront her own past before she can get at the truth.

In Stealing for a Living, Naomi Rand masterfully combines a brilliant whodunit with compelling, well-drawn characters. This fast-paced, gripping story is sure to keep readers enthralled to the very end.

About the Author Naomi Rand received her M.F.A. from Columbia University. She has been awarded a grant in fiction from the New Jersey Council on the Arts. She has written for Redbook, Parents, and Working Mother. Her short fiction and literary criticism have appeared in numerous literary magazines. She is the author of Baby Basics, a pregnancy guide from the What to Expect When Youre Expecting foundation. She lives with her husband and two children in Montclair, New Jersey.

 

 

Posted by The Private Eye on Jun 10, 00 - 010 AM

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The Writers Corner A new Look at How to Write Mysteries

 

How to Write Killer Fiction The Funhouse of Mystery and the Roller Coaster of Suspense

By Carolyn Wheat

ISBN 18808466

Format Paperback, 1pp

Pub. Date May 00

Publisher Daniel & Daniel Publishers

 

Creating the Readers Experience in Mystery & Suspense

Carolyn Wheat has written the clearest, most definitive How-To book on constructing a mystery novel that I have ever read. My only complaint is that she didn't write it thirty years earlier when I was first starting out.

Margaret Maron, winner of the Edgar, the Anthony, and multiple Agathas.

Wheat exposes the blood, sinews, and bones of the books we love to read and want to write. Its an elegant and fascinating How-To, written with dash and verve by a master storyteller. Simply grand.

Carolyn G. Hart, winner of the Anthony and Agatha Awards.

Now you can learn the craft of mystery writing from one of the most respected contemporary writers in the field Carolyn Wheat, winner of multitudinous awards and nominations. Wheat knows what editors want and shows you how to reach your writing and publishing goals.

How To Write Killer Fiction also helps with the process itself. Wheat explains the difference between mystery (the art of the whodunit) and suspense (the flight from danger). Recognizing that there are two kinds of writersthe Outliners who love and need to plan ahead, and the Blank-pagers who like to go where their Muse takes themthis book offers useful advice for both, without making a judgment about which is better. Wheat covers all aspects of writing from construction to revision to marketing. Her voice is friendly and entertaining, her grasp of the subject thorough and no-nonsense, and she offers tips and inspiration for good writing from the first word to the final period.

Carolyn Wheat is an award-winning mystery writer, editor, and anthologist. Two of her Cass Jameson legal mysteries were nominated for Edgar awards, and shes won the Agatha, the Anthony, the Macavity and the Shamus awards for her short stories. Wheat, an attorney, worked as a public defender in Brooklyn and taught mystery writing at the New School in New York City. She currently teaches writing at the University of California, San Diego.

 

 

Posted by The Private Eye on Jun 0, 00 - 041 AM

comments? || The Writers Corner

 

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